"The prolific Permian Basin, the mature super basin that extends from West Texas into southeastern New Mexico, should reach an oil production record this year of 815 million bbl-plus, far exceeding the previous peak of 790 million bbl set in 1973, according to IHS Markit. This year’s expected production milestone didn’t crawl past the 1973 peak but instead should eclipse the 44-year-old record by more than 25 million bbl. “The magnitude of the rebound in Permian Basin liquids production is unprecedented,” said IHS Markit’s Reed Olmstead, who directs energy research and analysis. “Not so long ago, many in the industry were saying the Permian was dead, but the Phoenix has again risen from the ashes and is soaring to new heights. “The Permian Basin is on track to add more than 2 million b/d in new production since 2007, and after the final-year production count is in for 2017, we will see the previous all-time liquids-production peak of 2.16 million b/d during 1973 surpassed by a significant margin, with total Permian volumes at roughly 2.75 million b/d.” Final production figures are set to be released after operators report 2017 year-end production, the consultant said Tuesday. The surge in Permian output “is projected to push total U.S. liquids production to a new all-time high by the end of 2018,” Olmstead said. “We see U.S. production exceeding 10.5 million b/d by the end of 2018.” The IHS Markit U.S. Energy Well and Production database reported that peak annual liquids production for the Permian Basin during 1973 was nearly 790 million bbl, an average of nearly 66 million bbl/month of oil. Peak-month liquids production in the Permian during 1973 occurred in September, with slightly more than 68 million bbl produced. By mid-year 2017, average monthly production already had exceeded the best month of Permian production during the former peak year of 1973. Year-to-date through this past July, Permian liquids production exceeded 484 million bbl, or an average of slightly more than 69 million bbl/month... Since it first began producing in the 1920s from the famed Santa Rita No. 1 well, the Permian cumulatively has produced more than 39 billion bbl of oil reaching peak volumes in 1973. Conventional oil production declined steadily in the next three decades, and some industry observers thought the Permian’s best days were behind it. However, unconventional drilling and completion technology changed the game in the 2000s, making it possible to extract oil and gas from tight and shale resources that had been considered uneconomic to produce. “The Permian is one of the most prolific basins in the history of oil production, with the onset of horizontal drilling and new completion technology during the past decade, the production decline in the Permian has been reversed and the basin has eclipsed its previous peak,” said IHS Markit’s Pete Stark, executive director, upstream research. “The significance of this second production peak cannot be overstated, since it truly revived a basin, and in many ways, the U.S. E&P industry. When we consider the impact on the world’s crude markets, the Permian has to be considered a global disrupter.” IHS Markit researchers said the Permian is of such significance to the global oil and gas industry that the basin is the model they use as the benchmark for its ongoing research study “Super Basins: The Basins that Keep on Giving Analysis.” Researchers identified more than onshore 25 super basins with multiple reservoirs and source rocks, diverse play types across numerous geologic horizons, infrastructure with access to markets, and established service sector and supply chains. According to IHS Markit, super basins must have achieved more than 5 billion bbl of cumulative production and have an estimated remaining production potential that is more  than 5 billion bbl. Initial results were reported earlier this year. IHS Markit researchers estimate the potential upside recoverable oil from 25 global super basins to be about 840 billion bbl. This is far larger than the resources required to generate the 40 million b/d of new oil supplies that may be required to meet estimated 2040 global oil demand, said the researchers. “The key question for truly optimizing the potential of these super basins is whether the global petroleum industry has the wherewithal to successfully implement the Permian Basin model in mostly onshore, international super basins,” said IHS Markit’s Jerry Kepes, executive director, plays and basins. “Established, mature super basins offer many potential advantages including lower subsurface risks, established infrastructure, existing supply chains and service sectors, as well as access to markets, but above-ground challenges pose substantial hurdles.”"
Permian in 2018 to Push U.S. Liquids Production to Record Levels, Says IHS Markit
Natural Gas Intelligence, 27 December 2017

"Not even a collapse in oil prices has been able to keep down a good “super basin.” Houston’s IHS Markit this week released an analysis that said the Permian Basin set a new oil production record of at least 815 million barrels, racing past its previous record of 790 million barrels set in 1973. The company will release final production figures after operators report their 2017 year-end production. Reed Olmstead, director, energy research and analysis at IHS Markit called the magnitude of the rebound “unprecedented.” He said it showed that unconventional resource plays could survive their first price downturn. The most efficient way to measure a play is in the number of wells drilled and the adjustments operators make per thousand wells drilled, he said in a phone interview from his Houston office. While the Eagle Ford and Bakken haven’t experienced significant changes per thousand wells drilled, “the Permian Basin has really changed,” he said. He described the efficiencies gained and how operators apply lessons learned as “impressive.” Permian operators have time to test methods and apply lessons learned, unlike in the Eagle Ford or Bakken plays, where wells have to be drilled to hold acreage. “The Permian Basin has come to have a very prominent effect on global supply and demand,” he said. “The Permian Basin has proven it can sustain activity, investment and production output even through a stressed price environment.” Even when prices were $40 to $45, the Permian was able to sustain production volumes and grow output, he said. He called that price range “the tipping point” and said current prices just shy of $60 a barrel are “well above the sweet spot for the Permian. $60 opens up a lot of drilling opportunities.” Operators have delineated their acreage as well as the geology and geography, and the Permian’s multiple stacked pay zones also extend those drilling opportunities. The only barrier he sees to continued growth right now is the “ability to get things done.” He said operators are able to drill wells, but are having difficulty securing the crews needed to hydraulically fracture and complete the wells so they can be placed on production. “I’ve heard it takes six to eight months to train a frac crew. Since Thanksgiving 2014 when prices began falling, service companies would keep their best crews. The best ones made it through the downturn because they were more efficient and faster. As the industry adds crews, they’re not as efficient as the ones that have been working the last four, eight years. It takes a while to build up crews, and a lot of the guys who could come back quickly, who still had the skills, have moved on to other industries,” he said. That means the Permian will see production grow some in 2018, but as new crews go to work and improve their efficiencies, “it will really grow in 2019,” he said. Olmstead predicted that Permian production volumes in 2017 will climb to roughly 2.75 million barrels per day, far above its previous peak of 2.16 million barrels per day in 1973. That surge will help push U.S. production to an all-time high of more than 10.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2018. He said most of that new production will be consumed domestically, but some will be exported. “Domestic demand is on the rise. Despite the rise of electric vehicles, we have a strong appetite” for products such as petrochemicals to be used in industries such as agriculture, Olmstead said.... The global industry would very much like to implement the “Permian model,” he said and questioned whether they can. He said the U.S. is unique in that it has thousands of operators and hundreds, if not thousands, of service companies and landowners, all wanting to benefit from crude production. Producing basins in other parts of the world are largely under national oil companies, and it can be difficult to be as flexible and quick-moving as U.S. operators. At international conferences hosted by IH Markit, Olmstead said oil minsters around the world ask how they can implement that business model. Not only are international companies investing in domestic operators, they’re also studying them to understand how they operate, he said. When crude prices sank from above $100 a barrel in 2014 to a 13-year low of $26 in February 2016, shale players were quick to divest assets, high-grade their portfolios and were still able to obtain credit to keep active, Olmstead said. “Everyone proved to be nimble, and that surprised the rest of the world,” he said. “The Permian Basin showed it could survive, and so the U.S. has taken on a global role in supply and demand and influencing prices.”
Permian sets record of 815M barrels
Midland Reporter-Telegram, 27 December 2017

"A mini ice age that would freeze major rivers could hit Britain in less than two decades, according to research from universities in the UK and Russia. A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030. A team led by maths professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University built on work from Moscow to predict the movements of two magnetic waves produced by the Sun. It predicts rapidly decreasing magnetic waves for three solar cycles beginning in 2021 and lasting 33 years..... Very low magnetic activity on the Sun correspond with historically documented cold periods on Earth. Professor Zharkova claims 97% accuracy for the model which dovetails with previous mini ice ages, including the Maunder Minimum period from 1645 to 1715 when frost fairs were held on the frozen Thames. But Professor Zharkova warned that any downward impact on global warming will last only until the Sun's two magnetic waves become active again in the 2050s. "We have to be sorted by that time and prepare everything on Earth for the next big solar activity," she said."
Scientists predict 'mini ice age' could hit UK by 2030
Sky, 27 December 2017

"Discussion of what will happen to US shale oil production next year rolls on unabated. With numerous factors bearing on this issue, it is mostly a question of what will have the most impact. If the EIA is anywhere near correct, shale oil production is growing rapidly. The EIA says average US daily oil production hit 9.78 million b/d in the second week of December and shale oil production is on course to hit 6.4 million b/d in January, an increase of 94,000 b/d from December. New numbers suggest that there has been a marked increase in the amount of oil hedged by oil drillers during the recent price increase. This action may enable shale oil drillers to keep increasing production in the coming year, even if prices drop. Despite concerns that the bulk of shale oil drilling has been unprofitable for the last ten years, recent discussions with knowledgeable financiers by Reuters suggest that the Wall Street spigots are still open. “If you’ve got the rocks, you can get the money,” is the refrain being heard. Private equity is taking on a larger role in the shale industry as traditional banks pare back lending. According to the Wall Street Journal, investors have funneled $200 billion to private equity firms that have had a focus on energy since 2014.  Some believe that while shale oil may be a losing proposition in the short term, the lack of new oil discoveries in recent years is a strong indication that oil prices will be much higher in the next decade.  This could make investments in shale oil profitable in the long run provided the companies one invests in do not go bankrupt in the short run. Overshadowing all the optimism is the rapid fall in production rates from shale oil wells and the recent concentration on drilling mostly in “sweet spots” to maintain and increase production. Most observers believe that these “sweet spots” will only be productive for a few more years at most, after which profitable shale oil production at prices below $100 a barrel becomes a very dubious proposition."
Peak Oil Review
Resilience, 26 December 2017

"China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) jumped to a monthly record in November as residential and industrial demand surged in line with Beijing’s drive to promote use of gas rather than coal to cut winter pollution. Shipments in November rose 53 percent to 4.06 million tonnes compared with the same month a year earlier, according to data released on Saturday by the China’s customs bureau. That beat the previous record of 3.733 million tonnes set in December 2016. Year-to-date, LNG imports were 33.13 million tonnes, compared with 26.15 million in the same period of 2016, pointing to 2017’s imports setting a full-year record.Gas shortages deepened in December, with some cities putting quotas on residential purchases and chemical plants in southern provinces shutting in order to cope with the supply crunch. Constraints on infrastructure such as LNG receiving terminals and storage facilities have meant China has limited space to further increase its LNG shipments, analysts have said."
China's LNG imports hit monthly record in November amid gas supply crunch
Reuters, 23 December 2017

"Scotland could have the greenest domestic heating, transport and industrial manufacturing in the world in a move that would consolidate the country’s bid to be a superpower for renewable energy generation. Academics claim achieving the goal to become carbon-neutral by 2050 hinges on repurposing the country’s oil and gas infrastructure, developing a carbon capture and storage (CCS) network and converting the gas grid from methane natural gas to hydrogen. Hydrogen emits no climate-warming carbon dioxide if produced using surplus renewable energy or alongside CCS, and can be used to heat homes as well as power vehicles. CCS involves removing carbon dioxide emissions from “dirty” operations such as the petrochemicals processing and fossil-fuel power stations and permanently locking them away in depleted oil wells. All this sounds like a massive undertaking, but scientists and engineers believe Scotland is uniquely positioned to make the vision a reality – and within the next two years. But they insist action must be taken now, before decommissioning of depleted North Sea oil fields begins, or the opportunity will be lost. The Scottish Government this week unveiled the country’s first energy strategy, which requires 50 per cent of all energy to come from low-carbon sources by 2030. It also contains a pledge to continue supporting innovation in the oil and gas sector, including decommissioning and carbon capture and storage. However, support from UK ministers is crucial.... Scotland has huge capacity for storing carbon dioxide in offshore rock formations, having 35 per cent of all potential sites in Europe. Analysts suggests this new industry could create billions of pounds a year in value and growth from 2025 onwards. But plans hit a major setback when Westminster scrapped a £1 billion competition aimed at developing CCS in the UK. It prompted energy giant Shell to mothball a major project in Peterhead."
Carbon capture expert urges repurposing of oil and gas infrastructure
Scotsman, 23 December 2017

"We're running out of new oil. Explorers in 2017 discovered the least amount of oil since at least the 1940s, according to Rystad Energy, an oil and gas consultancy. It estimated that less than seven billion barrels of oil equivalent were found this year through Thursday. Some energy companies will announce more discoveries next year in their 2017 annual reports, but Rystad expects this to increase the 2017 total by 10% at most. New discoveries have fallen every year since 2014, when oversupply triggered an oil crash that cut its price by more than half. The plunge forced many upstream oil producers to reduce their spending, and helps explain why discoveries are also down. But that's not the only reason: explorers are finding less oil resources per field, according to Rystad. An average offshore discovery held about 100 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2017, down from 150 million boe in 2012. The last time oil and gas companies added to their reserves by as much as they were producing was in 2006, when the so-called reserve replacement ratio reached 100%. It was down to 50% in 2012, and 11% in 2017. This doesn't mean we're about to run out of crude oil. Major producers including the US have emergency reserves. Moreover, the industry's headache for the past few years has been too much oil. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a cartel of big producers, has agreed to deal with the oversupply problem by cutting output until the end of 2018. Also, there are usually a few years in between when an oil firm makes a large discovery and when it's ready for production. That means we can count on recent discoveries to keep our engines running for some time. And there were some major discoveries this year, like the 1 billion barrels found off the coast of Mexico by Premier Oil, Talos Energy, and Sierra Oil & Gas. But if oil discoveries continue trending down, we could be talking seriously about oil shortages in about a decade from now, Rystad estimates.  "While there have been some notable successes this year, we have to face the fact that the low discovered volumes on global level represent a serious threat to the supply levels some ten years down the road," said Sonia Mladá Passos, a senior analyst at Rystad, in a press release."
Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ticking
Business Insider, 23 December 2017

"The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) taking gas from Azerbaijan to Europe will pump the first gas into Italy at the start of 2020 despite local protests against the 4.5 billion euro ($5.3 billion) project, the TAP president told Reuters. "We are on track to deliver the gas in the first quarter of 2020," Walter Peeraer said in an interview. TAP, the end piece of the $40 billion Southern Gas Corridor, is slated to bring up to 10 billion cubic metres of gas from the giant Azeri Shah Deniz II field into the small Italian seaside town of San Foca in the southern Apulia region by 2020.... The 870-km pipeline will link the Shah Deniz II field with Italy, crossing Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Albania and the Adriatic Sea. It is the largest attempt so far to bring new supply sources to European consumers. TAP shareholders include Azerbaijan energy group Socar, oil major BP and Italian gas group Snam. Peeraer said capacity on the TAP pipeline would be expanded when enough customers expressed interest but added there had been no discussions yet. "It is therefore premature to discuss if Gazprom might take capacity," he said. Earlier this year Gazprom's deputy head Alexander Medvedev said the company was considering pumping gas through the link."
TAP pipeline on course for first gas to Italy in early 2020
Reuters, 22 December 2017

"The global capacity of distributed energy resources (DER) will reach nearly 530GW in 2026. That’s according to a new report from Navigant Research, which suggests the predicted growth from 132.4GW this year to 528.4GW in 2026 will be led by electric vehicle charging and demand side response technologies over the next decade. It says the shift towards decentralised power represents a major shift from the centralised, one-way electrical grid and warns utilities they will need to adapt or be left behind. The group believes technologies like solar power, microturbines, fuel cells and storage systems will redefine the relationship between utilities and consumers by putting more power back in the hands of the customer. Roberto Rodriguez Labastida, Senior Research Analyst at Navigant Research, said: “For countries and regions that started their energy transition early, the role of distributed generation technologies will be less while the technologies that help integrate this generation will play a key role in the deployment of DER over the forecast period. “In this realm, when and how the electrification of transport happens will have a significant impact on the development of DER deployments.”"
Distributed energy resources ‘to quadruple by 2026’
Energy Live News, 22 December 2017

"France is to ban all drilling for oil and natural gas by 2040 after its Parliament approved part of President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to cut the use of fossil fuels. It will become illegal to produce or look for oil and gas in the country and its overseas territories. Existing drilling permits will expire in 2040 and, from today, no new ones will be granted.  France is the first country in the world to pass such a law.  The change is unlikely to have a significant impact, given 99 per cent of France’s oil and gas is imported from other countries. However, the French Government hopes the symbolic gesture will put pressure on other countries to adopt similar laws. Mr Macron has said he wants France to become the global leader in the fight against global warming. He has promised to replace any funding withdrawn from the UN climate change programme by Donald Trump, and has announced plans to ban the sale of diesel and petrol cars in France by 2040."
France to ban all oil and gas production from 2040
Independent, 20 December 2017

"Threatening to undermine the OPEC-led efforts to tighten markets is U.S. crude production , which has soared by 16 percent since mid-2016 to 9.8 million bpd, fast approaching that of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia, which are currently pumping around 11 and 10 million bpd respectively. U.S. shale production alone is expected to rise by 94,000 bpd in January, marking a 13th consecutive month of increases, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said late on Monday. Overall, the EIA said it expected U.S. production to hit a record 10.02 million bpd in 2018, on par with Saudi Arabia and not far off top producer Russia, which pumps around 11 million bpd."
Oil edges up on ongoing North Sea pipeline outage, but rising U.S. output weighs
Reuters, 19 December 2017

"As the Arctic melts rapidly, receding ice has made it easier to drill for natural gas in the region extending from the North American continent all the way to Russia, which was once considered to be either too harsh, or simply inaccessible. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is found in vast quantities near the North Pole, according to a report by Futurism. In fact, there is enough of it in the region to make Russia the world's largest exporter of LNG. Russian President Vladimir Putin has now moved to set up a massive $27bn (£20.2 bn) project in the Yamal peninsula above the Arctic Circle in collaboration with major industry players - France's Total and China's CNPC. The plant will start extracting 16.5 million tonnes of LNG per year by 2019."
Russia has already started drilling the melting Arctic for natural gas
International Business Times, 19 December 2017

"Europe is currently considering a renewable energy directive that would raise the requirements to use renewable energy from a level of roughly 16% of final energy demand in 2015 to a level of 27-35% by 2030. While this is a laudable target, policymakers do need to consider very carefully some potential unintended consequences of the rules that they are proposing. There is a real risk that these policies may even lead to a situation whereby global emissions accelerate. The flaw is this: the directive will use an expansive classification of bioenergy products, allowing countries, factories and power plants to claim credit as renewable fuel for using trees harvested specifically for use in power plants and not merely residues and wastes. Burning wood by-products – that is, residues and production wastes – has been long practiced in Europe. This can benefit the climate thanks to a two-fold displacement effect. First, energy is produced from biomass when it would otherwise have been produced by fossil-fuel energy, so significant emissions are avoided by keeping those fuels in the ground. Additionally, the alternative fate of wood residues and production wastes would most likely be to rot in the forest or in landfills, emitting greenhouse gases as they did so. While the action of burning wood waste itself creates CO2, the net effect is beneficial because of these displacement effects. Shaping the directive to allow trees themselves to be harvested for the sole purpose of energy means that several other science and policy complexities come into play. First, the alternative fate of trees that are harvested directly for bioenergy, unlike the fate of wood residues and production wastes, is to remain standing as living biomass for decades, locking up their carbon for that period. If the trees are actively growing, they will also be actively absorbing CO2, and this same rule applies to small and large trees alike. If bioenergy uses trees or portions of trees that would otherwise be used as sawn timber or for paper products, then trees elsewhere must be harvested to replace those products. For existing wood products, it is beneficial to engage in “sustainable management” of forests with sequential planting, harvest and regrowth periods, but even sustainable management does not avoid the “carbon debt” created by harvesting additional trees for energy. Several studies (for instance, Laganiere et al 2017 , Mitchell et al 2012) have calculated carbon payback periods for forest bioenergy under various management regimes at decades or even hundreds of years: yet it is now, in the early part of the 21st century, when we need to drastically reduce our carbon emissions. Second, harvesting and burning trees is inefficient as a system for clean-energy production. Around a third of a tree is left behind (as roots and small branches) to decompose into the soil (a carbon-emitting process). Then, the lower burning temperature of wood and its greater carbon intensity means wood releases more carbon than fossil fuels per unit of energy generated (almost 4 times more than natural gas, and over 1.5x that of coal). Strategies to increase that efficiency, such as the formulation of wood pellets or co-firing of wood with coal, inevitably have the result of increasing associated emissions.... To supply even a third of the additional renewable energy likely necessary by 2030, a fairly simple calculation from Europe’s reported annual wood harvest shows that at least an amount of wood equal to all of that harvest would be needed. That level is also roughly equal to the combined harvest in the US and Canada. With demand for other forest products, such as paper and pulp, burners of wood will have to look for other sources of supply.... The result of promoting a system of biomass electricity from dedicated tree harvesting, as calculated by a large number of studies from different research groups and governmental organisations, including the UK’s then-Department of Energy and Climate Change, will in all realistic scenarios be substantially more carbon in the air for decades regardless of the type of forest used and no matter how sustainably they are managed. A reasonable estimate (based on Laganiere et al 2017, Mitchell et al 2012, DECC 2014 and our own analysis) might be that every kilowatt hour of wood at least doubles the emissions over a period of 30 years that might otherwise occur even if the alternative were fossil fuels. If forest harvests supply one third of the additional renewable energy, the implication might therefore mean 6% or even more carbon in the atmosphere over that period compared to use of fossil fuels rather than at least 6% less that would come from using other renewables like solar or wind: a swing of 10% of Europe’s emissions."
Prof Sir John Beddington was the UK government’s chief scientific adviser between 2008 and 2013
Bioenergy ‘flaw’ under EU renewable target could raise emissions
Carbon Brief, 19 December 2017

"European Union environment and energy ministers on Monday agreed renewable energy targets for 2030 ahead of negotiations next year with the European Parliament, which has called for more ambitious green energy goals. Ministers said they would aim to source at least 27 percent of the bloc's energy from renewables by 2030, up from a target of 20 percent by 2020. In October, the European Parliament called for this target to be increased to 35 percent, a level also put forward by a group of big technology, industry and power companies last week. As part of the package of measures, ministers also agreed on the share of renewable fuels to be used in transport, while setting a cap on first-generation biofuels, which critics say compete for agricultural land with food. EU member states set a 14 percent renewables target for fuels used in road transport by 2030, with bonuses given for the use of renewable electricity in road and rail transport. The inclusion of rail into the renewable transport targets was criticised by the European Commission, as large parts of the European rail network are already electrified. "The level of ambition is clearly insufficient," Europe's climate commissioner Miguel Arias Canete told ministers during negotiations. Canete added that with falling prices for renewables, the EU could reach a target of 30 percent of renewables with similar costs as had been previously estimated for the 27 percent. "The reduction of costs in renewables has been spectacular, whether it is in solar energy or wind power," Canete told a press conference after the meeting. The European Council and the European Parliament will need to find a compromise in talks over the final legal texts on these matters next year. The EU's renewables targets are part of a set of proposals to implement the bloc's climate goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, in the wake of the Paris Agreement to limit further global warming to no more than 2 degrees."
Aim is to source at least 27 percent of the bloc's energy from renewables by 2030, up from a target of 20 percent by 2020
Reuters, 18 December 2017

"Heinrich Hora, a physicist from the University of South Wales has developed a new way to harness the power of fusion without using any radioactive materials and without creating any radioactive waste whatsoever. How? Quite simply by using giant lasers. By firing two almost unimaginably powerful lasers you can compress the nuclei in a hydrogen-boron reaction that generates no neutrons and therefore, no radioactivity. In case you’re wondering why we haven’t done this before the reason has been that we simply didn’t have the ability to create lasers that were powerful enough. The numbers involved in creating this reaction are just staggering. The temperature needed to kickstart this reaction is around 3 billion degrees Celsius or around 200 times hotter than the Sun. If that wasn’t enough the lasers would need to be fired in pulses that last just a trillionth of a second. Yet within that short amount of time the power of the last would be around a quadrillion watts. In addition to being a genuinely clean form of energy production the reaction doesn’t have to rely on driving a turbine and creates electricity that can be directly harvested. Of course the next step is turning all this into a reality, something that is closer to happening than you might think.“If the next few years of research don’t uncover any major engineering hurdles, we could have a prototype reactor within a decade,” said Warren McKenzie, managing director of HB11, the spin-off company that now owns Hora’s patents. “From an engineering perspective, our approach will be a much simpler project because the fuels and waste are safe, the reactor won’t need a heat exchanger and steam turbine generator, and the lasers we need can be bought off the shelf,” he added."
Laser-Powered Fusion Reactor Could Create Limitless Electricity Without Creating Radioactive Waste
Huffington Post, 14 December 2017

"Energy companies will boost capital spending in the U.S. oil patch next year, but their investments won't grow nearly as much as this year, a new report said Wednesday. The oil industry's capital expenditures – the lifeblood of the oil field service companies that employ thousands of people in Houston and across Texas – will increase by 15 percent in the United States next year, compared with an increase of 49 percent last year, according to a survey of more than 300 companies by investment bank Evercore ISI. That means the U.S. oil industry's capital expenditures will climb by $13.3 billion next year, vaulting above $100 billion from this year's haul of $87.7 billion. And that forecast may have to be revised if oil prices rise further. "2018 could be the first in several years that commodity prices surprise to the upside," Evercore ISI analysts said.  Almost two thirds of the oil companies in the investment bank's survey said they were not increasing their budgets to account for service cost inflation. International oil field spending will rise by 4 percent to $268.5 billion, an improvement over this year's 6 percent drop to $258.2 billion. Canadian oil producers could boost investments 9 percent next year to $16.1 billion, compared with a 36-percent boost to $14.8 billion in 2017. All told, global oil field spending could rise 7 percent, or $24.8 billion, next year, to $385.5 billion. That's higher than this year's 4 percent growth, but still 50 percent below the 2014 peak in the oil industry's spending. Global oil field spending fell 33 percent in 2016, the worst year of the oil-market collapse."
Global oil field spending set to rise by $25 billion in 2018, led by U.S., survey says
Houston Chronicle, 13 December 2017

"Living within half a mile of a hydraulic fracturing site carries a serious risk for pregnant women, a new study has found. The drilling technique, also known as fracking, injects high-pressure water laced with chemicals into underground rock to release natural gas. Women who lived within that distance to fracking operations in Pennsylvania were 25 percent more likely to give birth to low-weight infants than were mothers who lived more than two miles beyond the sites. The five-year study of more than 1.1 million births in the state between 2004 and 2013, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, also found lower birth weights, although not as low, in infants whose mothers lived between half a mile and two miles from a fracking site. Beyond two miles, there was no indication of any health effect to newborns, a significant drop-off, the study said... But those drawbacks are offset by the benefits of natural gas, Greenstone said. Hydraulic fracturing for oil and natural gas “has led to a sharp increase in U.S. energy production and generated enormous benefits, including abruptly lower energy prices, stronger energy security and even lower air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions by displacing coal in electricity generation.” The authors hope that policymakers will use the study’s finding as a talking point in a robust debate over fracking. They chose to study Pennsylvania because they got access to birth record data that identified “the exact locations of the mothers and the wells,” Greenstone said. “This was like a great success of big data.” Most drilling operations sit in remote areas where they have little chance of harming pregnant women. But some sites in Pennsylvania are near Pittsburgh, and others in Texas are inside heavily populated Fort Worth."
Fracking sites may raise the risk of underweight babies, new study says
Washington Post, 13 December 2017

"Britain has emerged as the unlikely first recipient of gas from a sanctioned Russian project after fears of a winter supply crisis drove prices close to five year highs. Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the £20bn Yamal project on Russia's northern coastline last week. Shortly after, British wholesale gas prices soared to four-year highs when a crucial North Sea pipeline was put out of action by a crack and a distribution hub in Austria was hit by an explosion. Now a deal has been struck to bring the debut cargo from Yamal to the Isle of Grain import terminal via a specially built ice-breaking tanker by the end of the month. Britain rarely receives deliveries of liquid natural gas (LNG) in winter because prices are typically far higher in east Asian markets. However rocketing demand in Europe drove the price for gas delivered to the UK to more than $10 per million British thermal units. This put the UK on a par with Asian gas markets, which are some of the most expensive in the world. Around 40pc of the UK’s domestic supplies have been wiped out until the new year due to the emergency shutdown of the North Sea’s Forties pipeline, operated by Ineos. Supply from Europe has also been constrained by the explosion at a hub in Austria and technical problems in the Norwegian North Sea. Despite the upheaval Government officials have repeatedly argued that the UK is not facing a threat to security of supply due to the wide range of gas sources available."
Russia to send first Arctic gas cargo to Britain in the wake of supply crisis
Telegraph, 13 December 2017

"Energy companies will boost capital spending in the U.S. oil patch next year, but their investments won't grow nearly as much as this year, a new report said Wednesday. The oil industry's capital expenditures – the lifeblood of the oil field service companies that employ thousands of people in Houston and across Texas – will increase by 15 percent in the United States next year, compared with an increase of 49 percent last year, according to a survey of more than 300 companies by investment bank Evercore ISI. That means the U.S. oil industry's capital expenditures will climb by $13.3 billion next year, vaulting above $100 billion from this year's haul of $87.7 billion. And that forecast may have to be revised if oil prices rise further. "2018 could be the first in several years that commodity prices surprise to the upside," Evercore ISI analysts said.  Almost two thirds of the oil companies in the investment bank's survey said they were not increasing their budgets to account for service cost inflation. International oil field spending will rise by 4 percent to $268.5 billion, an improvement over this year's 6 percent drop to $258.2 billion. Canadian oil producers could boost investments 9 percent next year to $16.1 billion, compared with a 36-percent boost to $14.8 billion in 2017. All told, global oil field spending could rise 7 percent, or $24.8 billion, next year, to $385.5 billion. That's higher than this year's 4 percent growth, but still 50 percent below the 2014 peak in the oil industry's spending. Global oil field spending fell 33 percent in 2016, the worst year of the oil-market collapse."
Global oil field spending set to rise by $25 billion in 2018, led by U.S., survey says
Houston Chronicle, 13 December 2017

"Britain’s biggest pipeline from its North Sea oil and gas fields is likely to be shut for several weeks for repairs, its operator said on Tuesday, disrupting gas flows and sending international crude prices to their highest since mid-2015. The closure has struck during a winter freeze in Britain, where snow and ice have driven up demand for heating fuel just as gas flows through the network, which carries a third of Britain’s gas produced offshore, were disrupted. “We are working to get the pipeline restored to full operation as quickly as we can safely do so... We have previously indicated a time frame of three to four weeks and we believe it is no less than two,” operator INEOS said in a email to customers seen by Reuters. The pipeline, which carries about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Forties crude, was shut after cracks were found. It has particular significance to global markets because Forties is the largest out of the five crude oil streams that underpin the dated Brent benchmark, against which other crude prices are broadly based. Benchmark Brent crude prices rose above $65 per barrel for the first time since the middle of 2015 following the closure on Monday.  INEOS only completed the purchase of the Forties pipeline system from oil major BP in October. A minor leak had caused a partial shutdown on Dec. 7 and a full shutdown on Monday. INEOS said the small crack has not increased over the past 24 hours. Paul Wheelhouse, the Scottish energy minister, said there were no plans to shut the 200,000 bpd Grangemouth refinery, which uses Forties crude. “If it’s a lengthy outage, then a recovery period for the fields will be long as well,” the trading source said. A number of producers including BP, Shell and Chrysaor, said they had closed down oil fields in response. The largest contributor to the Forties stream, the 180,000-bpd Buzzard oil field run by Nexen Petroleum UK Ltd, a subsidiary of China’s CNOOC, had also closed, two trading sources said. Monthly loading program show the supply of Forties is expected to reach 21 cargoes of 600,000 barrels each this month, equal to a daily supply rate of 406,000 bpd. The closure has created havoc with loading schedules in the North Sea, with one trading source saying cargo owners had been offered options to drop cargoes from the loading program. “At this point we would expect a large deferral list for the Forties loading program to spill over into January,” analysts from JBC Energy said in a note. “The timing of the outage could not be much worse as winter weather is just materializing,” Jefferies bank analysts wrote. Jefferies estimated the closure resulted in production loss for BP of 105,000 bpd, for Total of 55,000 bpd, for Chevron of 45,000 bpd, for Exxon Mobil of 40,000, for Eni of 25,000 bpd, for Shell of 25,000 bpd, for ConocoPhillips of 15,000 bpd The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises Western governments and coordinates the release of oil from strategic stocks in the case of supply disruptions, said it stood ready to take action but it did not believe this was necessary for the time being. “The market is amply supplied from other sources and stocks are well above the five-year average,” the IEA said."
Broken pipeline cuts British supply during peak energy demand
Reuters, 12 December 2017

"The Edinburgh Geological Society was formed in 1834 with the aim of stimulating public interest in geology. Issue 62 of its magazine, The Edinburgh Geologist, published in October, certainly did that. It contained a report by Edinburgh University that predicted the UK’s oil and gas reserves could run out in as little as a decade, that fracking is not viable in Scotland and barely feasible in the UK thanks to a dearth of suitable geology, and that the UK will soon have to import all its oil and gas. Professor Roy Thompson of Edinburgh University’s School of Geosciences also concluded that only 10% of the UK’s original recoverable oil and gas remains, roughly 11% of oil and 9% of gas resources. Deirdre Michie, CEO of industry body Oil & Gas UK responded that some of the largest fields in the North Sea would still be producing in 2050. The government said it did not “recognise” the figures. UK Onshore Oil and Gas CEO Ken Cronin also weighed in, accusing Thompson of making “sweeping assertions” about fracking in Scotland. The controversy was picked up by national newspapers and TV stations on both sides of the border. Public interest had, it’s safe to say, been stimulated. “When one drills down into claims that reserves will last to mid-century such assertions are quickly revealed to have no real basis and to be little more than hopeful aspirations,” says Thompson. “I surmise that some folk simply haven’t come to terms with the situation that previously declared reserves are being written off. They have still to grasp that while modest, new fields continue to be discovered the overall ultimately recoverable resources (URR) is in decline – a trend that began, for offshore gas, as far back as 1998.”  It is important to differentiate between ‘reserves’ of oil and gas, which are identified in location and quantity − and are therefore relatively easy to factor into supply chains and rates of consumption) − and ‘resources’ which often cannot be quantified without long-term geophysical and geologic study. Thompson’s time-series analysis of Oil and Gas Authority data on reserve depletion revealed that discoveries consistently lagged behind output since the point of peak oil recovery in the late 1990s. “A persistent, long term downward trend in URR has taken place,” he explains. “Obviously, reserve estimates change as extraction technologies improve, as markets evolve, and as oil and natural gas are produced. However, politicians like good news and the media like strong stories. “So long-term trends, especially downward trends, get lost among more newsworthy items involving new discoveries. In short, it is vital to let the full data record speak for itself.” The offshore industry is speculative by nature. So when the Scottish Government says there are “up to 20bn bboe remaining” on the UKCS it is, at best, a calculated guess. Thompson prefers hard data. “My view is that geology trumps optimism,” he says. “For example, it is instructive to look back at claims made during the most recent Scottish Independence referendum, such as “new techniques could add an estimated 21bn barrels”. Why were the admonishments made by Sir Ian Wood in 2014, as counters to the pronouncements, such a lonely voice?” “My conclusions are data driven,” he continues.” Take offshore gas (see Figure 1). The red triangle highlights my forecast. Gas production rapidly tapers to zero over the next ten years. Offshore oil decline follows a not dissimilar pattern (see Figure 2). The dramatic falls arise from the dual effect of a persistent downward revision in URR alongside depletion from production – the classic double whammy situation, where two unfavourable conditions exist at the same time.” Thompson is equally pessimistic about domestic fracking. Using US production data, comparative data on UK and US shale geology and production decline modelling, he concludes that a shale gas revolution in the UK similar to the one that has made the US energy independent is very unlikely. “In practical terms I applied a statistical analogue test, alongside a polynomial regression analysis,” Thompson explains. “The work revealed no clear match between UK geology and any of the top US shale-gas plays. “It needs to be recognised that North American plays were formed by a very particular and unusual coincidence of palaeogeographical, palaeoclimatic, local-tectonic and plate-tectonic circumstances.” Thompson points out that many possible fracking sites in Scotland and the UK are located in densely populated areas, and are characterised by low-quality source rocks and complex geological histories. “For fracking to be successful eight key geological prerequisites need to be met,” he explains. “These requirements can be used to discount one UK region after another. In Scotland − which has thin, clayey, shallow shales, complex geology and significant faulting – the situation is particularly poor.”  At present, 50% of the UK’s gas is imported from abroad, a figure that is expected to rise to 80% in the next 17 years, a major reversal compared with the year 2000, when the UK was a gas exporter. If Thompson’s predictions prove correct, the UK will soon be importing almost all of its oil and gas, despite Statoil’s recent discovery in the Moray Firth, two high-profile BP projects, Clair Ridge and Quad 204, Hurricane Energy’s Greater Lancaster Area development, and an upsurge in M&A activity and asset transfers between established players on the UKCS and start-ups backed by private equity. Thompson also suggests that the UK Government’s ongoing energy cost report – the Helm Review – should take stock of the projected shortfall in resource availability and how this might be addressed. “Dieter Helm’s report into the ‘Cost of Energy’ contains much to like,” he says. “However the Helm strategy is heavily dependent on gas prices remaining low or subdued, and on economically viable fracking continuing in the US and taking off in the UK.”  Thompson believes that the transition away from fossil fuels towards a clean economy must be accelerated. He worries that unless we seize the opportunity now to accelerate the development of renewable alternatives, we will face problems of maintaining stability and constancy of supply within a decade. “Once the principle is conceded − that cumulative production is rapidly approaching the ultimate recoverable reserve − it becomes evident we need to face up to a very different future,” he says. “We can plan to import vast quantities of oil and gas and hope, as a consumer, that the price stays low or even drops. Another plan would be to trust research and still emerging techno-fixes in the hope that a new energy technology can develop apace and become a genuine commercial success by delivering at scale."
Twilight years: is the UK entering its last decade of oil and gas production?
Offshore Technology, 11 December 2017

"The oil market has a problem — and it’s not a global glut. Rather, it’s that supply won’t meet rising demand in the long run, unless crude prices jump back to $100 a barrel.That’s the message from one of the world’s best-known oil traders, Pierre Andurand, who in September 2015, forecast crude would slump to between $25 and $30 — five months before prices dipped to around $26. But now the trader, who runs a big hedge fund specializing in the black gold, called Andurand Capital, is striking a remarkably upbeat tone on the commodity. “Demand growth has rarely been this strong, global oil reserves peaked 30 years ago, new oil discoveries are at all-time lows, and we think non-OPEC, ex-U.S., production is doomed at current prices,” he said at the Sohn Conference in London last week. “So [production] is pretty much in terminal decline, and the question that everyone really wants to get an answer to is: Can U.S. shale really fill the gap? Another question is: Are current geopolitical risks priced in?” he said. The answer to both questions is “no,” according to Andurand. As for U.S. shale, the hedge fund manager isn’t convinced the rapid ramp-up in output will carry on. The Energy Information Administration currently forecasts that total U.S. crude production — including non-shale output — will average 9.9 million barrels a day in 2018, which would mark an all-time high. Production for 2017 is expected to average 9.2 million barrels a day. However, Andurand points out that U.S. production has largely been flat over the past five months and says the EIA uses “outdated assumptions” to forecast future output. His argument? Shale companies will struggle to keep growth rates up as they deplete the most profitable wells and have to move to higher-cost locations. “[Shale producers] are starting to face pressure from investors to stop growing at all costs, but to look at growing within their cash flows. So we think U.S. production might fall half a million barrels a day relative to expectations,” Andurand said.Then there’s the geopolitical overhang that could cap output in coming years. The oil trader pointed to current risks such as infighting in the royal family in Saudi Arabia; tensions between the Saudis and Iran; the prospect of declining production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the U.S. potentially imposing more sanctions on Iran.“So you have a lot of potential downsides to supply,” he said.... West Texas Intermediate crude CLF8, +1.15%  and Brent LCOG8, +1.91% are now both trading close to two-year highs, around $57 a barrel and $63, respectively.But oil prices should rise significantly higher than that, says Andurand. Here’s how he lays it out: Demand for oil is rising. Reserves are getting depleted. That means new discoveries of supplies need to be made. And that exploration won’t happen until prices are at a level that makes it worthwhile.If oil prices stay at their current levels, then supply will peak before demand does, he said. That’s even as the car industry transitions to electric vehicles, shifting away from fossil fuels. In his view, oil demand will peak sometime between 2027 and 2035 — further out than most analysts expect. “Today we have 100 billion barrels less in reserves than 10 years ago,” he said. “If we don’t discover new oil, every year [reserves] will decline 3% a year, which means over 10 years you lose 30% of your reserves.” “We think we need $100 oil to mitigate declines through 2030,” he added, without giving a specific year when crude might regain the $100 level. In the shorter term, Andurand predicts a price rally, too. For 2018, he said oil could go to $80 without the OPEC deal that was agreed last week, but “much higher” with the output accord in place"
Trader who predicted oil under $30 says prices could rally to $10
MarketWatch, 9 December 2017

"Mining bitcoins, the digital currency, uses more energy than is expended by 159 countries, including Ireland and most African nations, analysts say. The cryptocurrency, awarded to people who use computing power to solve maths problems that keep the blockchain, the public ledger of bitcoin transactions, functioning, has a “colossal” carbon footprint, experts claim. The incentive to mine bitcoins has increased exponentially as the value of one coin has risen to nearly £12,000. Digiconomist, the cryptocurrency analytics company, claims that the total energy used by bitcoin-mining hardware is about 31 terrawatt-hours (TWh) a year. Ireland uses about 23 TWh and the UK about 309 TWh."
Bitcoin network ‘is using more energy than world can sustain’
Times, 9 December 2017

"China's natural gas import is expected to rise as new cross-border gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals will be put into use, a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said Thursday. "China supports domestic enterprises to increase natural gas output and at the same time to diversify imports of the resource," said spokesperson Gao Feng at a regular press conference. Calling imports "a significant source" of China's natural gas supply, Gao attributed increasing imports to rising domestic demand and the improvement of infrastructure facilities. Statistics from China's customs showed that from January to October of this year, China's natural gas imports rose 24.9 percent year on year to 54.165 million tonnes. Of the figure, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports surged 47.7 percent to a record high of 29.092 million tonnes, Gao replied in response to a question on the ongoing natural gas shortage in northern China. As millions of households have changed to gas instead of coal for heating this winter to help combat air pollution, there has been a sudden surge in the demand of natural gas.... Xu Bo, a senior analyst with China National Petroleum Corporation's (CNPC) Economics and Technology Research Institute, estimated that natural gas use was expected to reach 230 billion cubic meters this year with 20 billion cubic meters coming from the coal-to-gas transition. Xu projected a growth rate of 17 percent for the natural gas consumption this year, compared to seven percent last year. From January to September, China's LNG consumption has rose to 167.6 billion cubic meters, up 16.6 percent year on year.` To ensure gas supply, China's state-owned oil firms, including CNPC and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), are maximizing production at domestic gas fields and the National Development and Reform Commission has urged companies to be self-disciplined in pricing."
China wants to import more natural gas: spokesperson
Xinhua, 8 December 2017

"President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia was ready to sell gas to Saudi Arabia after he launched the first loading of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the Novatek-led Yamal LNG project in the Arctic. Russia is the world’s biggest gas producer, but most of its exports are via pipeline rather than LNG, a super-cooled fuel that can be transported by ship. It is the world’s seventh biggest LNG exporter. “Buy our gas and you’ll save oil,” Putin told Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who also attended the launch ceremony in Arctic tundra, according to a report by Interfax news agency. “If we continue to work the way we do, we will turn from rivals into partners. All benefit from joint work,” he said. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Russia worked together on a deal between OPEC and other producers on cutting oil output until the end of 2018 to curb a global crude supply glut. Putin and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, who visited Moscow in October, had agreed on joint investment deals worth several billion dollars, a boost to the Russian economy that has been battered by low oil prices and Western sanctions. Leonid Mikhelson, ranked Russia’s richest businessman and head of Novatek which has a 50.1 percent stake in Yamal LNG, said on Friday he discussed gas projects with Saudi officials but did not give details."
Russia offers to sell gas to Saudi Arabia from Yamal LNG
Reuters, 8 December 2017

"Russia has opened a multi-billion pound liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in the Arctic with the hope of becoming the world’s biggest exporter of the cold fuel. President Vladimir Putin boasted that he had defied critics to open the £20bn plant in the country's northern region of Yamal - a move aiming to surpass Qatar in exporting LNG. "This is a large-scale project for Russia," said the leader as he congratulated workers while overseeing the first gas shipment being loaded onto a tanker in -28C temperatures. "At the start of the project, people told me not to pursue this. Those who started this project took a risk but achieved a result." Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's energy minister, and other officials attended the launch, which saw Russian gas producer Novatek partnering with France's Total and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)."
Defiant Putin launches £20bn liquefied natural gas plant in the Arctic
Sky, 8 December 2017

"Mexican national oil company Pemex on Friday blamed the cancellation of a potentially lucrative deepwater Gulf of Mexico project on weak investor appetite due to competition from recent auctions in Brazil and low oil prices.... Once a top global crude producer, Mexico is struggling to reverse a dozen years of declining oil and gas output. The failure of the tender is a setback for its attempts to open up its energy production after a decades-long monopoly for Pemex. "This is a sign Mexico is reaching its limit of attractive (projects), especially because of political uncertainty due to upcoming elections," said Miriam Grunstein, a Mexico City-based energy researcher with Rice University...In its statement, Pemex said weak oil prices - with medium- and long-term projections at $50-$65 per barrel - have been a factor in companies exercising caution about taking on complicated, expensive deepwater projects like Nobilis-Maximino."
Mexico says deepwater oil tender doomed by Brazil competition
Reuters, 8 December 2017

"With a bid of $34.40 per megawatt-hour (MWh), Cox Energía of Spain won the rights to supply 140 gigawatt-hours of electricity to the Chilean grid during day and night, through foul weather and fair, using photovoltaics alone, reports GreentechMedia. That’s enough to power about 13,000 homes for a year. To keep the electricity flowing, the company will likely rely on some sort of storage system. Exactly what technology it’ll use has not been announced, but it’s most likely some sort of lithium-ion battery setup. It’s yet another sign that large-scale energy storage has arrived. A series of large batteries designed to support electricity grids have been deployed this year, with projects making headlines from California to Australia. Tesla and the AES Corporation in the US, Altagas in Canada, and others have jumped in to stake their claims in a market worth an estimated $12.7 billion in 2017, and expected to grow as more and more renewable energy plants are installed around the world....It’s a global trend: Wind and solar developers are entering record-low bids for energy projects all over the world as they anticipate steep price drops and the arrival of new storage technologies. Project developers are building new plants more efficiently, wind turbines and photovoltaic panels have gotten cheaper with economies of scale, and storage technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries, have seen prices plummet falling by about 50% since 2014."
A new project will supply Chile with solar power, even at night
Quartz, 6 December 2017

"A vast international experiment designed to demonstrate that nuclear fusion can be a viable source of energy is halfway toward completion, the organization behind the project said Wednesday. Construction of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, or ITER, in southern France has been dogged by delays and a surge in costs to about 20 billion euros ($23.7 billion). ITER's director-general, Bernard Bigot, said the project is on track to begin superheating hydrogen atoms in 2025, a milestone known as 'first plasma.'... The hydrogen plasma will be heated to 150 million degrees Celsius, ten times hotter than the core of the Sun, to enable the fusion reaction. The process happens in a donut-shaped reactor, called a tokamak,1 which is surrounded by giant magnets that confine and circulate the superheated, ionized plasma, away from the metal walls.  The superconducting magnets must be cooled to minus 269°C, as cold as interstellar space  Scientists have long sought to mimic the process of nuclear fusion that occurs inside the sun, arguing that it could provide an almost limitless source of cheap, safe and clean electricity. Unlike in existing fission reactors, which split plutonium or uranium atoms, there's no risk of an uncontrolled chain reaction with fusion and it doesn't produce long-lived radioactive waste.... While ITER won't generate electricity, scientists hope it will demonstrate that such a fusion reactor can produce more energy than it consumes. There are other fusion experiments, but ITER's design is widely considered the most advanced and practical. Scientists won't know until 2035, following a decade of testing and upgrades, whether the device actually works as intended."
The 'world's most complex machine' takes shape
Associated Press, 6 December 2017

"China will step up exploration for oil and gas and develop unconventional resources to ease the country's reliance on imports, a research center said Saturday. By 2035, China is likely to keep the dependence rates on oil, gas imports within 70 percent and 50 percent, respectively, according to a strategic research center under the Ministry of Land and Resources. The share of oil-gas in China's primary energy structure would be 32 percent and 35 percent, respectively, by 2035 and 2050, the center said, predicting the ratio of oil consumption would peak at 2030. China aims to increase domestic crude oil output to 200 million tonnes by 2020, while supply capacity for natural gas should exceed 360 billion cubic meters, according to the government's industry plan. Major tasks for the oil industry include accelerating exploration to ensure domestic oil supply, speeding up construction of pipeline networks and developing clean alternatives."
China to step up oil, gas exploration to ease reliance on import
Xinhua, 2 December 2017

"Danish conglomerate AP Moller-Maersk said Friday it will invest 21 billion kroner ($3.4 billion) together with British-Dutch oil producer Shell, among others, to redevelop and extend the production life cycle of Denmark's largest gas field in the North Sea. Maersk, whose oil company is being taken over by France's Total, said the investment will extend production at the Tyra field, which was slated to close this year, for at least 25 years. The group said the Tyra fields, which have supplied 90 percent of Denmark's gas, could under the redevelopment provide enough gas for 1.5 million Danish homes "at peak production."... "The redevelopment of Tyra is the largest investment carried out in the Danish North Sea," Maersk Oil's CEO, Gretchen Watkins, said in a statement. He said the field will be shut for redevelopment in November 2019, and production is expected to resume in July 2022. Maersk, which is based in Copenhagen, Denmark and also operates the world's largest container shipping business, estimates that the redevelopment of Tyra will yield more than 200 million barrels of oil equivalent. Approximately two thirds of the production is expected to be gas, with the rest oil."
Maersk Oil, partners to invest $3.4B in North Sea gas
Asssociated Press, 1 December 2017

"Renewable energy will account for more than half of the UK’s electricity generation by 2025, according to a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), driven in part by the falling cost of generating energy from wind and solar. Highlighting the significance of BNEF’s findings, Dr Nina Skorupska, chief executive of the Renewable Energy Association, said: “The study shows that wind and solar power are now the cheapest form of new build generation in many cases, and costs will continue to fall dramatically. “Massive increases in future renewable power generation mean that industry and government must start planning now to ensure low-carbon, cost-effective ways of balancing demand and supply.” Balancing supply and demand will be one of the biggest challenges for the National Grid as wind and solar become more central to the country’s energy market, given the variable nature of these two sources of renewable energy, which are much more unpredictable (and weather dependent) in nature than traditional power stations. One strategy that will become increasingly important for balancing energy supply and demand will be ‘demand response’, which could see industrial firms quickly respond to surpluses on the grid by consuming additional renewable energy for variable industrial loads. Another approach is smart metering, which can help address changing conditions on the grid by dynamically adjusting the price of energy supply (upwards, in the case of an energy deficit; downwards in the case of an energy surplus) during periods of variable energy generation."
Renewable Energy Will Account For More Than 50% Of The UK’s Electricity Generation By 2025
Business Computing World, 30 November 2017

"Members of the OPEC oil cartel and other nations, including Russia, have agreed to extend production cuts aimed at propping up prices until the end of next year. OPEC, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, had sought a new agreement as a worldwide glut continues to put downward pressure on oil costs. The countries - all Brent crude producers and led by Saudi Arabia - entered a deal a year ago to cut output by 1.8 million barrels a day until March 2018. That action - coupled with slower-than-expected growth in the production of cheaper US shale oil and higher demand in an improving world economy - has contributed to Brent rising from $50 a barrel then to just over $63 currently."
Oil production cuts extended until end of 2018
Sky, 30 November 2017

"Global demand for oil will hit its all-time peak within less than five years and thereafter begin a steady long-term decline, according to a bold forecast by respected Norwegian institute DNV GL in a thought-provoking study. The think tank and registration society estimates that 2022 will be oil's peak year, which is at least a decade earlier than previous studies, including those by oil and gas majors. The study also forecasts that Opec's strategy of limiting the supply of crude to global markets will unravel as oil companies steadily reduce their cost of production and undercut the group's output."
Oil's well—for now
Petroleum Economist, 28 November 2017

"Global gas supplies currently exceed demand, a situation that could lead to a "crisis" drop in prices similar to what occurred in the crude oil market, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said on Friday.  "The current excess supply of natural gas brings risks... of entering into the same crisis that affected oil prices," Novak said at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) in Bolivia, where top officials of major gas-producing countries have been meeting this week. Gas prices have plunged more than 80 percent in the last decade and remain under pressure due to growing supplies of shale gas and increased availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that can be shipped overseas. Novak said the threats to global gas prices underscore the importance of long-term supply contracts, in which producers can be assured a stable price over the course of years instead of being subject to the ups and downs of the market. Russia is the world's second-largest producer of natural gas, behind the United States. The United States has vastly increased its output of both crude oil and natural gas in recent years as improved drilling technology opened previously inaccessible reserves - a leading reason for a steep drop in petroleum prices ."
Russia warns global gas oversupply could trigger price 'crisis'
Reuters, 24 November 2017

"Ukraine’s natural gas imports so far this year are up 51 percent at 11.8 billion cubic meters (bcm), Ukrainian state-run energy firm Naftogaz said on Friday. Naftogaz itself has bought 7.5 bcm of gas in the first 10 months of the year, up 5.8 bcm on the same period last year. Ukraine, which previously met its gas needs from Russia, has been buying gas from European states since halting Russian imports in November 2015, following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea the previous year. “This year, Naftogaz is procuring imported gas from 13 European suppliers, with none of them accounting for more than 30 percent in total gas imports,” the company said. Naftogaz said most of the imported gas came from Slovakia."
Ukraine's gas imports up 51 percent this year
Reuters, 24 November 2017

"Falling gas prices, low-cost imports and stable carbon prices will see wholesale power prices in the UK decline steadily through to 2022, according to new research. In a note to its clients, ratings agency Moody's said it expects that prices will fall from around £45/MWh today to £40/MWh in 2022. Graham W Taylor, senior credit officer at Moody's, said: "The forecast is driven in large part by our expectation that gas prices will fall in sterling terms. Sliding demand and low-cost European power imports will also pressure prices." However, the ratings agency noted that changes to the UK carbon tax, a renewed commitment to carbon pricing in Europe, or reforms to the tax and regulatory treatment of interconnectors following Brexit could significantly change the outlook for British power prices. The UK has reduced power sector carbon emissions much faster than its European peers, largely as a result of an 85% fall in coal output since 2010. Significant growth in renewables, particularly offshore wind, will drive further reductions, and by 2022 Moody's expects the UK to have the highest contribution from non-hydro renewables of any large European country. However, these positive environmental steps have come at a high cost. Explicit and implicit UK subsidies for existing renewables run at more than £9bn annually, making them among the most costly in Europe."
UK energy prices to decline through to 2022 as 'cheap gas imports' rise
International Business Times, 23 November 2017

"It took the better part of a year but the production cut effected by the 14-member cartel, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in January is beginning to show results. Prices of the benchmark Brent grade crude have shot up by 36 per cent since the middle of this year and went within touching distance of the $65-a-barrel mark before retracing steps in the last few trading sessions. On Friday, Brent was trading in the $61-62-a-barrel range. Exactly a year ago OPEC decided to take 1.2 million barrels a day off the market through production cuts in an effort to bring down output to around 32.5 million barrels a day. The cartel persuaded the 11 non-OPEC oil-producing countries led by Russia to cut collective output by 600,000 barrels a day taking the total to 1.8 million barrels, which was a big deal indeed.This was the first time since 2008 that OPEC reached a consensus on cutting output and scepticism ruled as to whether the members would keep their commitments. Put it down to pressure on national budgets but the cartel largely abided by the agreement and the results are there now for us to see. What the production cuts did was to take off the surplus inventory floating around, literally, and brought balance into the market. The squeeze coincided with a revival of demand. With global economic recovery and consistent demand from Asia, especially China and India, the oil market began to feel the effect of the supply cuts. Geopolitics, as much as fundamental demand-supply equations, is a major factor in oil pricing, and the recent events in Saudi Arabia’s domestic politics coupled with the ongoing war in Yemen ensured that sentiment in the oil market would turn bullish on prices. That, in short, is the story of the current spell of elevated prices. The important question now is: Is the oil market headed back to the era of $100 a barrel?.... Saudi Arabia with its massive reserves of 260 billion barrels and dirt-cheap cost of production was the traditional leader and swing producer with an output between 8 and 10 million barrels a day. The kingdom could influence prices by turning its taps on or off. The US shale oil industry appropriated this role of swing producer in 2014. For the first time in oil market history, Saudi Arabia faced erosion of its pricing power. As prices began to fall, shale producers invested in technology that would enable them to consistently bring down break-even level. From between $65-70 a barrel three years ago, the break-even level for shale oil has seen a steady fall, and if the chief of Pioneer Natural Resources Company, one of the biggest producers in the Permian shale oil basin (one of two big basins along with Eagle Ford) is to be believed, it is as low as $20 a barrel now! That should be real bad news for conventional oil producers. Output from the US, including conventional oil, is projected to shoot past 10 million barrels a day in 2018 according to the Energy Information Administration, relegating Saudi Arabia to second spot. Rig count is consistently rising and so is the monthly output trend. The US is expected to turn a net exporter of oil by 2020 riding on the back of a second peak for shale oil output. This has tremendous implications not just for the energy market but also for geopolitics, especially in West Asia.  So, where does this leave oil prices? Opinion, as always, is divided, with traders projecting a pull-back from present levels. The CEO of Vitol, an important oil trader, believes that prices could retrace their way to the $45 a barrel level. Balancing this is the opinion of OPEC’s secretary-general Mohammad Barkindo, who believes that demand will go past 100 million barrels a day (from around 85 million now) by 2020 and thus keep prices elevated."
Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?
The Hindu, 19 November 2017

"The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund's proposal to ditch its oil and gas shares, though hugely symbolic in the battle against climate change, is unlikely to cause a rush to the exit by major investors in the sector in the short term.The move by the $1 trillion fund, the world's largest, rattled stock markets, exposing what is seen as one of the biggest threats to companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and BP as the world shifts towards renewable energy such as wind and solar. But in the meantime, expectations of growing global demand for oil and gas for decades to come mean reliance on these companies is likely to continue. And although the Norwegian initiative will encourage those seeking to hasten the move to a low-carbon economy, the degree to which other investors can follow the fund's example, at least in the short term, is less clear... The Norwegian wealth fund's move, echoing Saudi Arabia's plan to list part of its national oil company, was aimed at making Norway less exposed to volatile oil prices and less reliant on revenue from fossil fuels. If approved, it would most likely take years for the Norwegian fund to unwind its large investments in the sector and find new homes for the money. And while there is also growing demand from retail investors to invest in 'responsible' or 'sustainable' funds, oil and gas companies are not commonly excluded and any change here would be gradual. Dropping oil and gas companies would also mean missing out on a rich source of dividend income, a prized asset at a time of low bond yields. Three – Shell, Exxon and Gazprom - were among the top-10 dividend payers globally in the third quarter. In absolute terms, the number of oil and gas companies in leading stock indices varies, with 14 in the STOXX 600 index of leading European companies, or 2.3 percent; and 26 in the S&P 500, or 5.2 percent."
Oil giants unlikely to share coal's fate, for now
Reuters, 17 November 2017

".... a crucial part of the equation: the scale of the decline rate. And these days that's even more significant, be­cause the decline rate has become more dy­namic. Companies shouldn't ignore this shift in 2018 or beyond. It will matter a lot more than the (most likely) distant and hard-to-pin down arrival of an absolute peak in consumption. That producing wells and fields decline isn't exactly news—we know they do. But the glob­al rate of this decline is more difficult to put a number to. The rule of thumb offers up a range from 3-6% a year, with offshore rates higher than onshore, older fields higher than younger, and shale higher than all of them. But it seems that the decline rate has changed during the course of the oil market's downturn since mid-2014. Decline rates shrank in the initial phases of the price slump, as com­panies sought to keep existing production as high as possible by streamlining maintenance and focusing capital. Offsetting a field's or well's decline is, after all, often the cheapest barrel a company can bring to market. It was a way producers battened down the hatches to try to last out what was at first thought likely to be short-lived price weakness. As the notion that prices would stay "lower for longer" took hold, these temporary efforts were undercut by the sharp drop in capex. The result was an increase in the decline rate. Rystad estimated that 2016 had the highest decline rate of the past 25 years. It's likely to get worse, too, as the recent deep spending cuts steepen the decline curve for the next two years. Furthermore, we can expect a long-term structural increase in the decline rate, simply because—in the absence of many new fields be­ing developed—the average age of the produc­ing ones is now trending upwards. In 2017, we assessed the decline rate at 9+%, equating to about 8.8m b/d. That's five times greater than the demand increment for 2017. Significantly, the decline rate is highest in the producing segment that many in the mar­ket are relying on to swing higher to meet new demand: shale oil. A tight oil well can decline by up to 50% in its first year, after which the pace of decline starts to slow as the field ages. Even then, though, output still falls back at a rate well above the global average, regardless of the time frame examined. The growth of shale production has been breathtaking (and well documented), with out­put rising from just 1.4m b/d in 2007 to 6m b/d in 2017. Yet even this greater-than-threefold absolute increase in production pales in com­parison to the growth in the resource's decline rate. In 2007, shale's decline rate was estimated at 300,000 b/d. A decade later, the decline rate is nearly 4.3m b/d, a 15-fold increase. To put this in context, before shale started to cover some of the 1.6m b/d of global de­mand growth in 2017, it first had to produce the equivalent of non-Opec Latin America's output. Or put it another way: the volume shale producers needed to produce just to reach par output again in 2017 would make it Opec's sec­ond-biggest producer. These high decline rates are themselves partly caused by the underlying fast pace of growth, because new wells are the ones that decline most in their first year. Still, even when growth (in net output terms) has been absent, it takes a while for the decline rate to come down. For example, non-Permian production fell by about 0.8m b/d in 2016 as the industry cut activity in the face of low prices. The pace of decline over the same period fell by about 0.6m b/d—a rapid contraction, for sure, but in ag­gregate it still remained in excess of 3.7m b/d. Shale's ability to manage a potential supply shortage and keep prices relatively low and steady has been a major theme of discussions among analysts. My view is that shale has over-delivered what even the most positive as­sessments expected. Its growth in 2011-2014 peri­od and its resilience in the face of lower prices can cause a cognitive bias that this course will continue. But shale offers a relatively small por­tion of the global supply stack. And its high de­cline rate actually increases the risks of a supply shortage, particularly if its growth continues. From a volume standpoint, this is a bigger mat­ter than the incremental demand growth. For companies in 2018, it all means this. In an era of oversupply—which already seems to be receding—they need to pay attention to the long-term implications of changing decline rates, even more so given the context of multi­ple years of declining or insufficient investment. As firms focus their strategies on energy-tran­sition plans and how they can compete, they would also benefit from focusing on their de­cline rate—and divulging it—while keeping pro­duction costs low to offset this decline. Being able to compare performance with their peers will allow for a fuller and more complete picture of the role of demand growth for the industry."
Oil demand: Beware the gap
Petroleum Economist, 16 November 2017

"Elon Musk has always dreamed big, and tonight he showed off his biggest reverie yet: the fully electric Tesla Semi. Powered by a massive battery and capable of hauling 80,000 pounds, it can ramble 500 miles between charges. It’ll even drive itself—on the highway, at least. And Musk promises production will start in 2019. The big rig, which Musk unveiled at SpaceX’s Hawthorne, California headquarters Thursday night, is just the latest step in his mission to make humanity forget about planet-killing fossil fuels and embrace the gospel of electric power.... Musk believes that going after the big boys is the best way to have a real impact on climate change. In the five years since Tesla started producing its Model S sedan, it has sold about 200,000 cars. The US has more than 250 million passenger cars on the road, making the impact of this, roughly, zero. Even if Tesla scales up production of its “affordable” Model 3 sedan, it will still be a very long time before the Silicon Valley automaker can change the way humanity moves about enough for any dip in emissions to register as more than a blip. Trucks offer a more effective way to do that, because they are particularly toxic."
Meet the Tesla Semitruck, Elon Musk's Most Electrifying Gamble Yet
Wired, 16 November 2017

"Last week OPEC released a new forecast in its World Oil Outlook that forecast US shale oil production will grow faster than previously expected and will reach 7.5 million b/d by 2021 from what OPEC calculates is now 5.1 million b/d. Total US production is to grow by 3.8 million b/d by 2022. The cartel sees US shale oil production leveling off in 2025 and declining by 2030. OPEC is suggesting that there will be competition between shale oil producers and the cartel for at least the next seven years....Although production from the Bakken shale has been stagnant in recent months, the director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources believes that production will soon resume growing by 10-15,000 b/d each month. This could increase production to about 1.1 million b/d by the end of the year. If prices reach $60 a barrel, the director believes the Bakken’s production could grow to 1.6-2 million b/d. In the last few years, the meaning of the term ['Peak Oil'] has shifted in the minds of most to mean the time when oil production peaks because of falling demand and not from a shortage of oil that can be produced at affordable prices.  The falling demand is usually seen as being due to the widespread adoption of electric cars or perhaps harsher regulations on the combustion of fossil fuels. A few observers, however, are still concerned that the 34 billion barrels of oil we consume each year may lead to shortages of affordable oil in the next decade. The approaching end of onshore conventional oil, the lack of sufficient investment in deepwater oil in the last few years and the rapid depletion of the dwindling supply of shale oil sweet spots all suggest that the oil may come into short supply and be more expensive in the next five to ten years...."
Peak Oil Review
Resilience, 13 November 2017

"The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say.  However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes. “Drilling costs rise exponentially with depth, and there’s a suspicion that longer wells are hitting a cost efficiency ceiling,” WoodMac’s chief analyst writes. Moreover, after the early production-exuberance stage, drillers are now much more focused on delivering profits and higher profit margins. They now favor quality over quantity, and value over volumes. “Might the Permian be reaching the limits of well size and design? Maybe—as Star Trek’s Scotty might observe of an underwhelming high intensity completion ‘you cannae change the laws of physics, Jim’,” Flowers says. But WoodMac suggests that drillers could ‘change the laws of physics’ and that these signs of setbacks may actually be growing pains....  ExxonMobil has already drilled a 12,500-foot well in the Permian and “will no doubt ramp up longer still to test the diminishing returns theory,” Clarke noted.  Now the next challenge will be to deliver an effective completion of such a long well. “The application of the Majors’ capital and industrial approach will test whether the thousands of wells to be drilled in the future enable the Permian to deliver on the bold growth targets,” WoodMac said.Two months ago, Wood Mackenzie warned that as drillers are set to continuously develop the hottest U.S. shale play, they may soon start to test the region’s geological limits. And if E&P companies can’t overcome the geological constraints with tech breakthroughs, Permian production could peak in 2021, putting more than 1.5 million bpd of future production in question, and potentially significantly influencing oil prices."
Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away?
OilPrice.com, 12 November 2017

"Italy called on Friday for coal power plants across the country to be phased out by 2025 and for renewable energy to play a greater role as it moves to reduce its carbon footprint. In a framework energy document, Rome said the aim was for green energy sources to account for 28 percent of overall energy consumption by 2030 from 17.5 percent in 2015. In particular it said it wanted renewables to make up 21 percent of energy consumption in the transportation sector compared to 6.4 percent in 2015. But gas would continue to have a key role in Italy's energy strategy, the document said. Italy, which imports about 90 percent of its gas needs, generates about 43 percent of its power from gas. In slides on its new strategy, the government said it wanted to promote new gas import pipelines to diversify supply while liquefied natural gas capacity would be awarded by auction and not on a fixed tariff basis. On Thursday the head of Italy's biggest utility Enel said the strategy needed to give a greater role to green energy to wean the country off reliance on gas."
Italy calls for coal plant phase-out by 2025, gas to keep key role
Reuters, 10 November 2017

"Saudi Aramco has agreed to a slate of oil and gas megaprojects, including new pipelines, gas plants and offshore oil fields, valued at nearly $4.5 billion. Eight agreements were signed with several oil and gas service contractors to expand gas production and localise domestic content....Amin H. Nasser, Saudi Aramco president and CEO, says: 'These agreements we signed are part of our natural gas expansion, as we add about one billion standard cubic feet per day. 'These new supplies will help reduce domestic reliance on liquid fuels for power generation, enable increased liquids exports, provide feedstock to petrochemical industries, and reduce carbon emissions.'"
Saudi Aramco inks oil and gas megaproject
Tank Storage Magazine, 10 November 2017

"The forecast for oil demand looks stronger than it did last year, according to OPEC. The group's prognosticators raised their projections for oil demand in 2022 by 2.2 million barrels a day in this year's World Oil Outlook report. That's largely due to strong consumption in the developing world. But OPEC also expects demand to keep growing in developed countries until 2019, rather than peaking this year as earlier forecast. OPEC now sees demand reaching 102.3 million barrels a day in 2022, up from 95.4 million barrels a day in 2016. The United States will meet much of the world's growing appetite, increasing its oil output by 3.8 million barrels a day through 2022, OPEC says. That will be equal to about 75 percent of all supply growth outside the 14-member OPEC, which provides about one-third of the world's crude. Much of that growth will come from U.S. shale fields, where drillers use advanced methods like hydraulic fracturing to coax oil and gas from shale rock formations. However, OPEC sees production of this so-called tight oil from the United States and elsewhere — including Canada, Russia and Argentina — peaking in 2025. Output will boom in part because shale producers are focusing on drilling their best acreage, where they can extract oil and gas at relatively low cost. Shale wells initially produce a lot of oil, but their output declines rapidly. "This growth is heavily front-loaded, as drillers seek out and aggressively produce barrels from sweet spots in the Permian and other basins," OPEC said, referring to the epicenter of the U.S. drilling activity in Texas and New Mexico. Around the same time that shale production peaks, years of weak growth from OPEC nations will come to an end, in the group's view. After stagnating at just more than 33 million barrels a day, OPEC's output will raise sharply to 41.4 million barrels a day by 2040. In that case, OPEC's share of the global market for crude oil and other liquids will grow from 40 percent last year to 46 percent in 2040. "Thus, the long-term focus for additional liquids demand remains on OPEC," the group said. Oil demand will grow to 111.1 million barrels a day by 2040, but that growth will slow down as the years grind on, according to OPEC's latest forecast. By 2040, OPEC thinks oil and natural gas will still account for more than half of the world's total power generation."
US shale oil will dominate the market in coming years, but the tables will turn, OPEC says
CNBC, 7 November 2017

"A rapid adoption of electric vehicles could cause world oil demand to reach a plateau in the second half of the 2030s, OPEC said in a report, a potential setback for the oil exporter group’s longer term prospects. OPEC also said in its 2017 World Oil Outlook that demand for its crude would rise in the next two years more slowly than previously expected as a recovery in prices due to OPEC’s return to supply management stimulates output growth outside the group... OPEC said the report’s forecast that world oil demand would rise to 111.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2040 could be curbed to 108.60 million bpd if electric vehicles are adopted more widely than assumed in the report’s reference case. “Moreover, global oil demand is estimated to plateau around this level in the second half of the 2030s,” OPEC said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is not alarmed, though, saying oil use won’t peak yet and expecting its market share to rise to 46 percent in 2040 from 40 percent in 2016.... Demand for OPEC crude will reach 33.10 million bpd in 2019, the report said. While up from 32.70 million bpd in 2016, the 2019 figure is down from 33.70 million bpd forecast in last year’s report. OPEC raised its forecast for the supply of tight oil, which includes U.S. shale. It said a rise in prices in 2017, plus sustained demand growth, had resulted in a higher forecast for supplies outside OPEC. “The medium-term outlook for non-OPEC liquids growth has changed quite considerably,” OPEC said in the report, referring to its 2016 forecasts. “Most strikingly, U.S. tight oil production has exceeded previous growth expectations.” Oil prices hit their highest since July 2015 on Monday, trading above $62 a barrel. This year’s report did not mention the oil price it assumes. Last year’s report assumed OPEC’s basket of crude oils would reach $65 in 2021. Global output of tight oil will reach 7.0 million bpd by 2020 and 9.22 million bpd in 2030, the report said, as Argentina and Russia join North America as producers. Last year’s estimates were 4.55 million bpd by 2020 and 6.73 million bpd by 2030. OPEC also increased its medium-term world oil demand forecast, expecting oil use to reach 102.3 million bpd by 2022 - 2.24 million bpd more than in last year’s report."
OPEC says electric vehicles could lead oil demand to plateau in 2030s
Reuters, 7 November 2017

"The use of natural gas is expected to grow to 485 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2040, primarily in Asia and the Middle East. That’s an increase from 340Bcf/d in 2015, according to latest projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). China is forecast to account for more than a quarter of all global natural gas consumption growth between 2015 and 2040, driven by environmental policies, relative cost competitiveness of natural gas in the industrial and transportation sectors and relatively higher economic growth. The EIA states the nation’s 13th Five-Year Plan aims to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions by promoting natural gas in its energy mix, replacing some coal and oil use. The Chinese Government has set targets to increase its share of natural gas in the primary energy mix from 5.9% in 2015 to 10% by 2020 and 15% by 2030. The EIA projects China’s natural gas use to grow to 57Bcf/d in 2040 – from 19Bcf/d, surpassing all other countries except the US. The US is expected to see a “more modest” growth, from 75Bcf/d to 88Bcf/d in 2040, remaining the world’s largest natural gas consumer."
China to lead growth in global natural gas use
Energy Live News, 4 November 2017

"If we want to have a decent shot at staying within the 2C warming, global emissions need to peak sometime within the next decade and start declining sharply after that. If global peak emissions are only achieved in 2025, that won’t give economies enough time to adapt, and irreversible environmental damage will be done. If the peak would be achieved this year, we would have 25 years to reach zero or almost zero global emissions, and that would almost certainly ensure less than 2C warming...A new report published by World Resources Institute (WRI), a US-based global environmental research group, concludes that countries amounting to 36% of global emissions have reached their peak. Most of Central and Eastern Europe have already peaked for more than 20 years, with other European countries like France or the United Kingdom peaking by 2000. Meanwhile, the US, Canada, Brazil, and Australia peaked by 2010. Another 8 countries representing another 23% of emissions are on course to reach their peak within a decade. The most notable mentions are China and Mexico. Figuring out whether a country has peaked or not is not as straightforward as it might seem. Aside from actually measuring and quantifying the emissions, there’s also the matter of establishing what a peak means. Just because emissions have gone down for 2-3 years doesn’t necessarily mean that the trend will continue in the future. For instance, China’s emissions have dropped significantly in both 2015 and 2016 but it’s not clear whether the trend will continue. However, almost all experts agree that China will peak by 2030. If we want to have a decent shot at staying within the 2C warming, global emissions need to peak sometime within the next decade and start declining sharply after that. If global peak emissions are only achieved in 2025, that won’t give economies enough time to adapt, and irreversible environmental damage will be done. If the peak would be achieved this year, we would have 25 years to reach zero or almost zero global emissions, and that would almost certainly ensure less than 2C warming."
Greenhouse gas emissions have already peaked in 49 countries, but it’s still not good news
ZME, 3 November 2017

"Saudi Arabia has sent a request for information (RFI) to international suppliers to build two nuclear power plants, a first step towards a formal tender, three sources said. The kingdom is considering building 17.6 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity by 2032, the equivalent of about 17 reactors, making it one of the biggest prospects for an industry struggling after the 2011 nuclear disaster in Japan. The world's biggest exporter of oil wants to reduce the amount of crude it burns at home to generate electricity so it can sell more of it overseas."
Saudi Arabia takes first step towards nuclear plant tender: sources
Reuters, 31 October 2017

"U.S. gas exporters and traders are aiming to grab a bigger chunk of the lucrative, growing business of exporting gas to China, the world's third-largest buyer, when they accompany Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to China next month. But the talk may all be hot air if the U.S. suppliers can't compete with bargain prices agreed on long-term deals with rivals Australia, Qatar and Malaysia. According to a list seen by Reuters, 10 of the 29 companies travelling with Ross and U.S President Donald Trump are involved in energy and gas. Among them are Cheniere Energy Inc, which operates the only U.S. LNG export terminal and Freepoint Commodities, founded and run by David Messer, who led power utility Sempra's vaunted commodities division. Their presence underscores the U.S. ambition to sell more of its excess gas abroad as the U.S. shale revolution threatens to upset the global LNG market. China's appetite has soared as it embarks on an audacious bid to heat millions of homes across the north by gas for the first time this winter and switch tens of thousands of industrial boilers to the cleaner fuel as part of its push to clear the skies. Without sufficient domestic output to meet growing demand, imports have surged this year, offering huge potential for major exporting nations such as the United States.... Current long-term contracts with Qatar and Australia signed between 2009 and 2013 will expire around 2030/40, but China will need to top up imports to meet growing demand. Uncertain when the global LNG market will bottom out, Chinese buyers are cautiously avoiding lining up new long-term contracts, but rather are looking at signing five-year or even shorter-term deals based on spot prices, sources said. U.S. imports of LNG have exploded this year. In the first nine months of the year, shipments hit almost 600,000 tonnes, ranking the United States as the sixth largest LNG importer, leap-frogging Nigeria and Peru. The average price China paid for U.S. LNG was $7.62 per million of British thermal units (mmBtu) over the past 12 months on a delivered basis, compared to $6.54 for Australia, according to Reuters calculations based on monthly customs data. In 2016, China imported just under 200,000 tonnes of LNG, up from 62,601 tonnes in 2015. China expects that gas demand will rise to between 320 and 360 billion cubic metres per year by 2020. The increase is the equivalent of the annual consumption of Japan, Asia's second-largest gas consumer after China."
Hot air? U.S. gas exporters rush to sell LNG to China
Reuters, 27 October 2017

"Southeast Asian demand for oil will keep growing until at least 2040 as emerging nations there rely on the fossil fuel to transport their rapidly growing populations, ship goods and make plastics, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. Oil usage in the region will expand to around 6.6 million barrels per day by 2040 from 4.7 million bpd now, with the number of road vehicles increasing by two-thirds to around 62 million, the agency said in a report. It did not make any forecasts beyond 2040. A global push to replace combustion engines in vehicles with electric-powered ones to fight climate change has raised concerns in the oil industry that demand for the commodity could peak in the next 10-20 years. But oil will continue to meet around 90 percent of transport-related demand in Southeast Asia, especially for trucks and ships, Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security, said at the Singapore International Energy Week. “Unless there are any drastic technological changes that can decarbonize these areas, we do not expect oil demand to fall,” he said. Oil demand from the petrochemicals sector, one of the largest users of the fossil fuel, will also grow fairly substantially, Sadamori said. Oil can be used as a raw material for plastics and textiles. The IEA expects electricity to account for only 1 percent of transport energy demand in 2040, saying there will be only about 4 million electric cars in a total passenger vehicle stock of 62 million. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia’s overall energy demand is expected to climb nearly 60 percent by 2040 from now, led by power generation, as rising incomes in the region spur more people to buy electric appliances including air conditioners, the IEA said. The region will have universal access to electricity in the early 2030s and is expected to install more than 565 gigawatts (GW) of power-generation capacity in 2040, from 240 GW today, the agency said. Coal and renewables account for almost 70 percent of new output, it added. Coal alone will account for almost 40 percent of the growth while renewables will quadruple by 2040 to become the second largest source of electricity after coal, overtaking gas, IEA forecasts showed. Southeast Asia will become a key driver for energy demand globally as its economy triples in size and its total population grows by a fifth, the IEA said. But the region’s net energy import bill is also climbing as oil production declines, raising concerns over energy security. Southeast Asia will have to fork out more than $300 billion in 2040 for net energy imports, equivalent to about 4 percent of the region’s total gross domestic product, the IEA said. “Apart from the mounting import bill, the region’s increasing dependence on imported energy raises significant energy security concerns,” the agency said."
IEA sees Southeast Asia oil demand growing until at least 2040
Reuters, 24 October 2017

"The US government issued a rare public warning that sophisticated hackers are targeting energy and industrial firms, the latest sign that cyber attacks present an increasing threat to the power industry and other public infrastructure. The Department of Homeland Security and Federal Bureau of Investigation warned in a report distributed by email late on Friday that the nuclear, energy, aviation, water and critical manufacturing industries have been targeted along with government entities in attacks dating back to at least May. The agencies warned that hackers had succeeded in compromising some targeted networks, but did not identify specific victims or describe any cases of sabotage. The objective of the attackers is to compromise organizational networks with malicious emails and tainted websites to obtain credentials for accessing computer networks of their targets, the report said. US authorities have been monitoring the activity for months, which they initially detailed in a confidential June report first reported by Reuters. That document, which was privately distributed to firms at risk of attacks, described a narrower set of activity focusing on the nuclear, energy and critical manufacturing sectors. Department of Homeland Security spokesman Scott McConnell declined to elaborate on the information in the report or say what prompted the government to go public with the information at this time."
US warns public about cyber attacks on energy, industrial firms
Reuters, 22 October 2017

"The prospect of peak oil demand is "very real," although nearly 20 years away, says a new report from consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The firm says that the global oil market is facing a number of fundamental structural changes, with the resulting story not one of a simple peak and decline. “Demand across the OECD will revert to structural decline by 2020, wiping out about 4 million bbls/d of demand by 2035. Throughout the decade from 2020, a combination of factors, including electric vehicle take-up, as well as government policies and a mature transport sector, will lead to declines in OECD transport oil demand,” the company said. “In contrast, Wood Mackenzie expects demand in non-OECD economies to grow by nearly 16 million bbls/d by 2035, due in part to rising income levels and a growing middle class boosting demand for transport fuel. On top of this, demand for consumer goods, including plastics, and the need to move freight in an increasingly consumer-driven world, will also contribute to non-OECD oil demand. Non-OECD demand growth slows from 2030, driven by a stall in oil demand growth in China.” Transport fuel demand, highlights the challenges facing the oil market, Wood Mackenzie noted. Of the 96 million bbls/d consumed worldwide, almost 60 million bbls/d of that demand comes from the transport sector…Technological advances, both in fuel efficiency and in hybrid and electric vehicles, will erode demand for transport fuels. But that erosion will not be felt uniformly across the world. The rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy explains some of the widening divide between developed and emerging economies. The petrochemical sector is one of the few bright spots for oil demand, the company said, with feedstocks expected to add 6 million bbls/d to total demand by 2035 – an increase of 50% from current levels. “Although oil demand grows to 2035 on aggregate, growth is minimal compared to levels seen over the past 20 years,” Wood Mackenzie said. “The prospect of peak oil demand is very real. The oil industry is right to be concerned and needs to plan for the changes and challenges ahead.””
Global peak oil demand coming in 2035: WoodMac
JWN, 16 October 2017

"The global outlook for oil markets in 2018 could put a dampener on hopes for higher prices, according to the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Global stock builds, rising non-OPEC production and sluggish growth in demand could weigh on the oil price, the IEA said in its closely-watched report published Thursday. Looking into oil supply and demand balances in 2018, the IEA said that it saw that "three quarters out of four will be roughly balanced — again using an assumption of unchanged OPEC production, and based on normal weather conditions." "However, our current numbers for the first quarter of 2018 imply a stock build of up to 0.8 million barrels a day (mb/d). Taking 2018 as a whole, oil demand and non-OPEC production will grow by roughly the same volume and it is this current outlook that might act as the ceiling for aspirations of higher oil prices," it added."
Three factors could crush hopes for a higher oil price, IEA says
CNBC, 12 October 2017

"Saudi Arabia - the largest exporter of total petroleum liquids - has maintained its position of being the second-largest petroleum exporter to the US after Canada during the first half of this year, a Wam news agency report said. ''In the first half of 2017, US total petroleum liquid imports averaged slightly higher (than 2016 exports) at 1.2 million bpd. Since 2012, Saudi Arabia has been the second-largest petroleum exporter annually (after Canada) to the United States, when it surpassed US imports from Mexico,'' the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Saudi Arabia County Analysis. In 2016, Saudi Arabia exported an average of 1.1 million bpd of total petroleum liquids to the US, it said."
Saudi Arabia stays 2nd largest oil exporter to US
Oil and Gas News, 10 October 2017

"China’s moves to slash reliance on the internal combustion engine signal tough times for the country’s oil majors. A push into new energy vehicles (NEVs) – including battery-powered and hybrid cars – could curb demand for black gold. Sinopec and PetroChina will be hardest hit. The policy will also add to downward pressure on global crude prices. The People’s Republic is ultimately hoping to outlaw traditional gasoline-fueled cars entirely, cleaning up the air and relieving it of dependence on oil imports. There is no official deadline for the move, but Wang Chuanfu, founder of Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD, reckons the ban could come as early as 2030. As a battery maker poised to profit from the shift, Wang’s guesstimate is certainly self-interested, and probably wishful thinking. Electric cars accounted for less than 2 percent of China’s market share in 2016, and a bottleneck in battery production will hamper the transition. But there is no doubting China’s determination to push the pace. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology says NEVS should account for a fifth of auto sales by 2025. As soon as 2019, regulators want automakers to make NEVs at least 10 percent of total sales. That means China’s $440 billion retail fuel market is in for a bumpy ride."
China’s oil giants brace for electric car crash
Reuters, 9 October 2017

"Forget the sun and wind — evaporating water could be the next big source of renewable energy, said James Temple at Technology Review​. So-called evaporation-driven engines "generate power from the motion of bacterial spores that expand and contract as they absorb and release air moisture." Evaporation continues 24/7, so the engines, which sit on the water's surface, could provide power nonstop — unlike solar panels. The technology is still in a prototype phase, but a new study in the journal Nature Communications notes that the power available from natural evaporation in lakes and reservoirs in the continental U.S. could meet 70 percent of the nation's needs. If even a small amount of that energy were tapped, says study co-author Ozgur Sahin of Columbia University, evaporation-driven engines "could make a significant contribution to clean-energy and climate goals."
Is evaporating water the future of renewable energy?
The Week, 8 October 2017

"Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed a pledge to shrink a global oil glut as the leaders of the two energy superpowers met in Moscow on Thursday, helping to send crude prices higher by more than $1 a barrel. The countries that produce roughly a fifth of global oil supplies made the strongest indication yet that Opec-led production cuts could be extended at least until the end of 2018 if deemed necessary. On the first ever visit by a Saudi monarch to Russia, King Salman bin Abdulaziz said that he sought to “strengthen” the relationship between both countries that has become increasingly bound by economics, trade and geopolitics. He met with Vladimir Putin, Russian president, at the Kremlin with bilateral talks also attended by the energy and foreign ministers of both nations. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that both leaders had declared their commitment to the oil cut deal... Agreement between heads of states of both countries led to the deal between Opec and non-Opec countries to cut global supplies by 1.8m barrels a day, which has allowed for prices to rebound above $50 a barrel this year.....  Opec countries are targeting $60 a barrel after a collapse in prices since 2014 battered their economies that are heavily dependent on revenues from crude sales. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose $1.31 a barrel to $57.12 a barrel in afternoon trading in London. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, increased $1.11 to $51.09 a barrel."
Russia and Saudi reaffirm Opec oil supply cut pledge
Financial Times, 5 October 2017

"Energy firm Ovo is launching a battery storage system in conjunction with Nissan which it says can save households an average of £590 a year on energy bills. The system allows consumers to store more of the electricity created from their solar panels which would otherwise be wasted. With energy bills rising and all of the Big Six providers hiking prices already this year, we've taken a look at just how much difference having a battery system could make. The energy firm claims the battery system, called OVO SolarStore (Beta), could shave hundreds off energy bills. This saving is made up of two parts: The first is £240 which would be a saving on the amount of energy used per year - as more will be self-generated and stored via the battery pack. While the second of £350 is the average amount Ovo estimates households can make by selling excess energy back to the national grid.  But in order to make these savings, you'll need to have both the battery pack from Ovo and a set of solar panels installed. The price of the battery is £4,800 upfront with a £500 installation cost and £50 initial survey price. If you don't have solar panels already the cost of these (without installation) could be up to £6,000 for a 21 square meter roof.  But with such a significant amount to pay out, is it ever worth investing in a system such as this?"
Are solar panels with a battery storage system the answer to rising energy bills?
This Is Money, 4 October 2017

"UK drivers could be paid to own an electric car under a pioneering new partnership between Ovo Energy and Nissan. The companies hope that the offer - the first of its kind in the UK - will speed up the adoption of greener vehicles. The “vehicle to grid” technology allows owners of Nissan’s electric cars to connect their batteries to the grid during low-demand, cheap tariff periods.  They can then use the electricity stored in the vehicle’s battery at home and at work when costs are higher, or even sell surplus electricity back to the grid and make a profit, the companies said in a statement. If all of the UK’s cars were connected to the grid they could supply up to 200GW, more than double the current peak requirement, Nissan and Ovo said. The first installations are set for January 2018. The ability to store electricity in thousands of batteries across the country will help maximise the use of renewables which are produced only when conditions are right, the companies said. It could also reduce the need for new power stations and upgrades to the grid, according to Ovo chief executive, Stephen Fitzpatrick....Ovo also plans to launch its first home storage battery for customers with solar panels. The system will cost £4,800 but customers will get also benefit from a £350 annual credit and estimated average £240 savings on their energy bills."
UK drivers could get paid for owning an electric car under new plans from Nissan and Ovo Energy
Independent, 3 October 2017

"Last November, Opec announced that members had agreed to cut oil production by 1.2m barrels a day. On top of that Russia, which is not a member of Opec, also agreed to cut production by a further 600,000 barrels a day. In total, that is about 2 per cent of total global oil production. There was a fair bit of scepticism when the deal was announced. Few doubted that Saudi Arabia would cut production, but plenty of pundits wondered whether the smaller Opec countries would keep their promises (not to mention Russia). However, promises have been kept and production has fallen. What’s more, the deal was extended for a further nine months in May. At the same time, demand for oil has risen as global economic growth strengthened this year. There is plenty of chatter that production cuts will be extended, and the global economy still looks pretty buoyant. That suggests further price rises. On the other hand, US shale production is expected to rise in 2018, so that could crimp further gains. The rise of US shale oil is a crucial part of this story. New techniques emerged over the past 20 years which meant that substantial oil reserves in the US could now be extracted at a reasonable cost. It was the resulting rise in production that triggered Saudi’s move to lower the oil price in 2014.... Demand is clearly still there, and new oil reserves continue to be discovered. So we are probably not at peak oil yet. When a terminal decline in production does start, it may not be down to a lack of oil reserves. More likely, we will hit peak oil when renewable energy sources have become a major part of the global energy mix worldwide."
Why has the price of oil risen this year?
Financial Times, 29 September 2017

"Shale drillers and oil sands producers have posted some healthy profits so far this year, but it’ll take oil consistently above US$50 a barrel for their investments to pay off in the long run. That’s the conclusion of a Moody’s Investors Service study of 37 exploration and production companies in the U.S. and Canada released Thursday. It’s also why legendary hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who’s shorting shale driller Continental Resources Inc., says independent explorers have been a bad deal for shareholders. Shale oil producers “are creatures of the capital markets,” Chanos told Bloomberg TV’s Julia Chatterley, Joe Weisenthal and Scarlet Fu. “Because the wells deplete so quickly, they constantly need to raise money to replace the assets.” Producers in the U.S. and Canada have made dramatic efforts to cut costs since the collapse of oil prices three years ago, with many delivering higher dividends to investors this year. But with limited wiggle room to reduce costs further, any improvement in their ability to sustain healthy returns will have to come from commodity prices, Moody’s analysts Sreedhar Kona and Steven Wood said in the report.... returns will have to come from commodity prices, Moody’s analysts Sreedhar Kona and Steven Wood said in the report.The two analysts used a measure of how efficiently cash is generated to cover the costs of leasing drilling rights and boring wells, and still have enough left over to invest in future projects. “Companies will be able to demonstrate meaningful capital efficiency, measured by the leveraged full cycle ratio, only if the West Texas Intermediate oil price is above $50 per barrel and the Henry Hub natural gas price is at least $3 per million British thermal units,” they said. With a few notable exceptions, such as Appalachian explorers Antero Resources Corp. and Range Resources Corp., as well as Canadian shale gas producer Seven Generations Energy Ltd., the ratio for the vast majority was way below a level Moody’s considers healthy. Interestingly, the three best performers are focused on liquids-rich gas plays — the Marcellus and Utica formations in the northeastern U.S. and the Montney shale in Alberta. Antero and Seven Generations have seen their cash flow from operations surge over the past few years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Producers’ leveraged full cycle ratio needs to be significantly above 1 for explorers to earn a meaningful return on their investment, the Moody’s analysts said. The average for the 37 explorers was 0.59 last year, according to the study. The ratios for the top three performers were above 1.5. Antero’s 2.19 ratio tops the list. Among the lowest ranking were Apache Corp. and Devon Energy Corp., with ratios below 0.05, according to the report."
Shale boom, oilsands will pay off only if oil goes above US$50: study
Financial Post, 29 September 2017

"It's quite the leap from cordless vacuums to electric cars - but Dyson is in a good position to attempt the jump. The vacuum cleaner manufacturer's announcement of an electric vehicle is about one thing: batteries. Dyson has been working on battery technology for a while now, to make its vacuum cleaners last longer on a charge. Most of its products are now cordless. Last March, the company announced it was investing £1bn in battery research and development. Batteries are, of course, what electric cars run on. But more than that, they're the competitive edge for the entire industry. Every auto manufacturer, from Tesla to Jaguar Land Rover, is working on the next breakthrough. That's because, with the internal combustion engine and drivetrain removed, electric cars are radically simpler to make than traditional vehicles. Analysts at JP Morgan say that the average electric vehicle has only 20 moving parts, compared to 2,000 in an internal combustion vehicle. So battery know-how becomes relatively more important than the traditional expertise of a car maker. That opens the car market to a whole host of new competitors - now including Dyson."
Dyson's electric car plan all about one thing: batteries
Sky News, 27 September 2017

"EasyJet - the budget carrier better known for its low-cost fares and early-morning flights to sunny destinations in southern Europe - could be operating electric aircraft within the next decade, according to a pioneering firm the carrier is working with. US-based company Wright Electric is developing battery-powered planes which could be used for flights of under two hours' duration. This would make them suitable for some of EasyJet's short-haul connections - such as services between London and Paris, or Edinburgh and Bristol. With the absence of traditional fuel engines, the electric planes would be more environmentally friendly, cutting both aviation emissions and noise levels. Wright Electric has released images on its website of how a battery-powered EasyJet plane might look, although it is working with other airlines as it moves towards its goal. It believes that electric planes could be up to 50 per cent quieter than traditional aircraft, and 10 per cent cheaper for airlines to buy and operate. This saving could be passed on to passengers through lower fares. It has built a two-seater prototype, and is working towards a fully electric plane - able to hold 120 passengers and up - that could be commercially operational within a decade. It also believes that every short-haul flight could be battery-powered and emissions-free within the next 20 years, and envisages an aviation landscape where electricity could come from solar sources or wind power."
EasyJet could be flying battery-powered electric planes within the next 10 years
Telegraph, 27 September 2017

"China's technologically recoverable shale gas reserves dropped by 6 percent in 2016, the Ministry of Land and Resources said on Saturday, with no new volumes of the unconventional resource added last year. Reserves stood at 122.41 billion cubic meters at the end of 2016, down from 130.18 billion cubic meters a year earlier, according to a report released by the ministry.  Shale gas was the only one of 22 major minerals listed to add zero newly discovered reserves in 2016, although potash was assigned a negative figure, indicating that some previous reserves were written off. China has been trying to replicate the North American shale gas revolution and reduce a hefty reliance on energy imports.  China imported 33.98 million tons of crude oil in August, or 8 million barrels per day (bpd), up 3.4 percent from a year earlier, but this is a slide to the lowest monthly level since January, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed. That compared with 8.18 million bpd in July.  Natural gas imports rose 69.5 percent year-on-year in August to 5.66 million tons, a level down from July's 5.75 million tons. Almost all of the country's shale output comes from Sinopec's Fuling project near Southwest China's Chongqing Municipality. Sinopec said in March that it plans to boost Fuling's annual production capacity to 10 billion cubic meters from 7 billion cubic meters. A gas field containing shale gas in Southwest China's Guizhou Province was reported to harbor an estimated 100 billion cubic meters of accessible gas when its discovery was announced in July last year, but no new volumes were included into the ministry's latest shale figures."
China’s recoverable shale gas reserves fell by 6% in 2016
Global Times, 24 September 2017

"Some of the world’s top oil forecasters are starting to map out scenarios for what is billed as one of the biggest threats to future demand: China and India eyeing a ban of petrol and diesel cars. The two countries, which comprise more than a third of the world’s population, were long seen as the main drivers of growing oil consumption as more people take to the road in their fast-developing economies. In the past month, however, Chinese officials have floated the possibility of phasing out the production and sale of fossil-fuelled vehicles, following the UK and France which have said they aim to ban diesel and petrol cars by 2040. India indicated this year it wanted all cars to be powered by electricity by 2030. While doubts remain about the feasibility of such timelines, Pira Energy and Wood Mackenzie, the consultancies that advise some of the biggest energy companies and investors, have flagged in reports the rising risk to oil consumption. Pira, a unit of S&P Global, said that while they remain “sceptical” fossil fuel cars will be phased out in the timescales under discussion, they can paint a realistic path where global oil demand peaks much sooner if China and India push towards a fully electric motor car fleet. Mark Schwartz, head of Pira’s scenario planning group, said “in a scenario where EVs approach 40 per cent of the on-road vehicles in the world by 2040, compared to our reference case of 20 per cent, global oil demand would essentially plateau in the early 2030s”. Oil demand, Pira argues, would be 10.8m barrels a day lower by 2040, removing the equivalent of more than 10 per cent of global consumption — a move it forecasts would cut crude prices by as much as $20 a barrel. Wood Mackenzie, based in Edinburgh, said recent comments by Chinese officials “reinforce the government’s ambition to promote EV growth” that already targets 20 per cent of new car sales being electric by 2025. If this rate were raised to 50 per cent by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said, as part of a phase out of conventional engines by 2035, almost 2m barrels of Chinese fuel demand would be “at risk”. This would require China to do much more at the policy level to support EV sales, however, as it plans to cut direct subsidies for such cars by 2020. “As government subsidies still play an important role in supporting EV sales, we believe the market response will lag five to 10 years behind any government target without further policies to fill the gap,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said. “Given the lack of clarity . . . about the timeline and the definition of cars being targeted, the viability of any ban on combustion-engine cars remains to be seen.”"
Electric car push signals cap on endless rise in oil demand
Financial Times, 24 September 2017

"Britain will need to boost its generation of electricity by about a quarter, Scottish Power has estimated. The energy firm said electric cars and a shift to electric heating could send demand for power soaring. Its chief executive also said there would have to be a major investment in the wiring necessary to handle rapid charging of car batteries. Keith Anderson was speaking as the firm reached the milestone of 2,000 megawatts of wind power capacity.That equates to about an eighth of the British total... Once the price of electric cars falls to that of petrol or diesel, which it is thought will happen between 2022 and 2025, there could be a rapid shift in buying patterns and electricity usage. Earlier this month, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced a target of shifting from petrol and diesel-fuelled cars to battery power by 2032, while the UK government intends to make that shift by 2040... Mr Anderson said: "The worst position for this country to be in and the worst position for customers is that we get huge enthusiasm, people rushing out to buy electric cars because the price has come down, and then we can't allow people to plug them in because we haven't invested in the infrastructure. "So one of the things we're looking at now is how we plan what has to happen to the distribution system." The estimate of a 20%-30% increase in demand for electricity comes after years of gradually declining power use, much of that due to growing energy efficiency and the closure of older, energy-intensive industries.... The added challenge of cars is the change in technology from an eight-hour overnight charge to a rapid charge of 15 to 20 minutes. If several car owners on a residential street plug those in at the same time, the system could not cope. Mr Anderson said: "The system that takes the wires into the house, down the street, to local businesses - how do we make sure it can cope with that level of demand? It'll take a long time to plan and deliver.".... Heating is the next frontier in the energy revolution, which has barely begun. In place of gas and oil-fired boilers in each home, electric central heating can be powered by renewable generation. However, it is likely to require not only removal of a boiler, but the replacement of radiators and hot water heating pipes throughout a home."
Scottish Power says UK will need to boost capacity
BBC, 23 September 2017

"By 2021, oil production could peak in Permian Basin, as rapid drilling and fracking exhaust underground pressure in the most prolific areas of the West Texas play, according to one scenario outlined by energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. In five years, the firm said, oil companies could be drilling wells that pump as much as 30 percent less crude than the ones that kicked off the region's oil boom. "We're drilling so many wells and with such tight spacing, should we really expect well No. 5,000 to perform like well No. 5 did?" Robert Clarke, a research director at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie in Dallas. It's impossible to predict exactly when drillers will reach the limits of the Permian Basin. Some believe that day is still far off. But it wouldn't be the first major U.S. oil field to slow down after a few go-go years. In South Texas, oil companies discovered the sweet spots of the Eagle Ford Shale were much smaller than anticipated. The industry had expected the Haynesville Shale, primarily in northwestern Louisiana, to thrive for years. But development there slowed dramatically after natural gas prices tumbled. North Dakota's Bakken Shale also has not yet lived up to early projections, Clarke said. In a few years, the problem in the Permian could be so-called child wells, the offspring of the region's first horizontal wells. They produce less oil than so-called parent wells because some amount of reservoir pressure depletes as drillers exploit an oil field. Wood Mac believes oil production in the Permian Basin could peak around 3.5 million barrels a day in 2021 unless drillers can continue to develop technologies to boost production. Roughly half a decade in the life of several major U.S. shale plays, "something happens, and the growth slows," he said. That's not to say the Permian Basin's oil production will drop dramatically after reaching its peak. The firm expects the region's output to continue to pump a little less than 3 million barrels a day out to 2030. And Wood Mac also laid out another scenario, in which drilling and fracking technology outpaced the Permian's geological constraints. In that scenario, the region's output would peak at 5 million barrels a day in 2025."
Permian could top out in 2021 unless tech overcomes geology, Wood Mac says
Houston Chronicle, 20 September 2017

"The North Sea oil industry is entering its final decade of production, according to new academic research that rejects Alex Salmond’s claims during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign of an impending second boom. An Edinburgh University study of output from offshore fields estimated that only around 10 per cent of the UK's original recoverable oil and gas remains untapped. It also concluded that fracking will be barely economically feasible in the UK, especially in Scotland, because of a lack of sites with suitable geology. The researchers warned that the UK will soon have to import all the oil and gas it needs. Official figures published last week found that oil production increased by 2.9 per cent last year following a recovery in the price..... The study, published by the Edinburgh Geological Society, took into account the long-term downward trends of oil and gas field size and lifespan, alongside the break-even costs for fracking. Analysis of hydrocarbon reserves shows that discoveries have consistently lagged behind output since the point of peak oil recovery in the late 1990s. The research predicted that both oil and gas reserves will run out within a decade....Deirdre Michie, chief executive of industry body Oil & Gas UK, said: “There are up to 20 billion barrels of oil and gas resources still to be recovered on the UK Continental Shelf, based on production forecasts provided by the Oil and Gas Authority. Production has increased over the last two years and we expect that to continue to rise.”
UK's oil industry 'entering final decade of production'
Telegraph, 19 September 2017

"A study of output from offshore fields estimates that close to 10 per cent of the UK’s original recoverable oil and gas remains – about 11 per cent of oil and nine per cent of gas resources.The analysis also finds that fracking will be barely economically feasible in the UK, especially in Scotland, because of a lack of sites with suitable geology. If the study’s predictions are correct, the UK will soon have to import all the oil and gas it needs, researchers warn. Instead, they recommend a move towards greater use of renewable energy sources, particularly offshore wind and advanced solar energy technologies. It is strongly urged that the UK Government’s ongoing energy cost report – the high-profile Helm Review – should take stock of the projected shortfall in resource availability and how this might be addressed. Scientists from the University of Edinburgh examined the UK’s likely potential for fracking and carried out a fresh analysis of the country’s oil and gas production. Their findings take into account the long-term downward trends of oil and gas field size and lifespan, alongside the break-even costs for fracking. They found that the UK has only minimal potential for fracking. Many possible sites are in densely populated areas, have low quality source rocks and complex geological histories. Fracking is likely to be too restricted to become an effective industry, which would require thousands of wells, scientists say.  Analysis of hydrocarbon reserves shows that discoveries have consistently lagged behind output since the point of peak oil recovery in the late 1990s. The research predicts that both oil and gas reserves will run out within a decade."
UK oil and gas reserves may last only a decade
University of Edinburgh, 19 September 2017

"The worst impacts of climate change can still be avoided, senior scientists have said after revising their previous predictions. The world has warmed more slowly than had been forecast by computer models, which were “on the hot side” and overstated the impact of emissions, a new study has found. Its projections suggest that the world has a better chance than previously claimed of meeting the goal set by the Paris agreement on climate change to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, makes clear that rapid reductions in emissions will still be required but suggests that the world has more time to make the changes."
We were wrong — worst effects of climate change can be avoided, say experts
Times, 19 September 2017

"Speaking at a green energy conference in London, Leonhard Birnbaum, chief operating officer for renewables at Eon of Germany ... said wind and solar power could prosper without handouts. Research published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance at the conference projected further sharp drops in the cost of renewable power as the industry matures. Renewables were forecast to receive almost three-quarters of the $10.2tn of global investment in new power generating technology between now and 2040. During that time, the cost of solar power is expected to fall by a further 66 per cent and onshore wind by 47 per cent, undercutting the majority of existing fossil fuel power stations by 2030."
Energy executives confident over renewables future
Financial Times, 18 September 2017

"Russian oil major Rosneft (ROSN.MM) will invest in gas pipelines in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan, expanding its commitment to the region ahead of an independence referendum to help it become a major exporter of gas to Turkey and Europe. Kurdistan’s parliament approved a plan on Friday to hold a referendum on independence on Sept. 25, ignoring opposition from Baghdad and the wider region as well as Western concerns that the vote could heighten tensions in the region."
Russia's Rosneft clinches gas pipeline deal with Iraq's Kurdistan
Reuters, 18 September 2017

"Shale crude-oil production from seven major U.S. oil plays is expected to see a monthly climb of 79,000 barrels a day in October to 6.083 million barrels a day, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Monday. The report has forecast increases in shale-oil output every month so far this year. Oil output from the Permian Basin, which covers parts of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is expected to see the largest climb among the big shale plays, with an increase of 55,000 barrels a day. Oil output at the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas, however, is expected to decline by 9,000 barrels a day. October West Texas Intermediate oil CLV7, +0.22% was up 7 cents, or 0.2%, for the session at $49.96 a barrel, a few minutes before the settlement on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
U.S. shale oil output expected to rise by 79,000 barrels a day in October: EIA
Market Watch, 18 September 2017

"The benchmark North American oil futures contract moved above $50 US a barrel on Thursday, buoyed by predictions of growing demand worldwide. It's the first time since the beginning of August that WTI crude has traded above $50. It hit $50.30 a barrel at midday in New York, before sinking back to $49.89 at the close, a rise of 59 cents. Brent crude, the main international contract, rose to $55.80 US a barrel. A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released Thursday has projected world energy consumption will grow by 28 per cent to 2040. And while renewables are projected to be the fastest-growing energy source, fossil fuels will continue to be important and demand will grow, even though prices are also projected to rise, the report said. The EIA report dovetails with a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, issued Wednesday, that raised its estimate of 2017 world oil demand growth to 1.6 million barrels per day from 1.5 million bpd.  "OECD demand growth continues to be stronger than expected, particularly in Europe and the U.S.," the report said, noting a rebound in economic growth in both areas. Total Canadian oil supply is also growing as oilsands production comes onstream despite plunging oil prices and could near 4.95 million barrels per day in 2018, the EIA forecasts.... The U.S. EIA predicts natural gas will be the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the years to 2040, with global natural gas consumption increasing by 1.4 per cent annually.  The lower carbon intensity of gas will make it preferable to coal and petroleum as countries shift their energy mix because of climate change, but gas is also attractive because of abundant resources and rising production. In the long term, the share of oil in the world's energy mix will be reduced, to about 31 per cent in 2040, the EIA report predicts. It predicts oil prices will rise and make it more likely energy users will adopt more energy-efficient technologies and to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible. While OECD demand may be rising this year, the report says China and India will lead the growth in demand for world energy to 2040."
Oil punches through $50 US a barrel as world demands more crude
CBC News, 14 September 2017

"Merrill Lynch energy analyst Doug Leggate published a very bullish report on North American oil stocks, "The EIA lowered expectations for 2018 oil production for the 4th consecutive month ... We see prospective US oil [production] growth below most commentator expectations and improving demand as incrementally positive for the timing of a rebalanced oil market, particularly absent significant new large scale black oil investment ex shale. This is starting to look like an oil cycle!"
Merrill Lynch getting bullish: ‘This is starting to look like an oil cycle!’
Globe & Mail, 14 September 2017

"When Jaguar Land Rover followed in the tracks of Volvo last week with its shift to an electric-powered future, the car maker didn’t just talk about hybrids and batteries. Its chief executive also showed that his company, like governments and oil firms, is finally waking up to the global shockwaves electric cars will bring about. They are far more profound than whether drivers top up via a pump or a plug. Ralf Speth cited the impact battery-powered cars will have on oil demand, and the “considerable stress” that could have for major oil-producing countries’ budgets....  Carmakers have queued up to pledge that soon all their new models will be either hybrids or electric. Elon Musk’s Tesla delivered the first production versions of its mass market Model 3. The UK and France said sales of petrol and diesel cars would be banned from 2040, while a bank predicted all new car sales in Europe would be electric five years before that. On Friday, the ride-hailing behemoth Uber said all its cars in London would be fully electric or a plug-in hybrid by 2025. And with the Frankfurt motor show this week, we are guaranteed more commitments and more competition between carmakers over who is electrifying fastest. Sceptics will say there is a need for a reality check on the high-voltage hype about battery cars. They will point to the fact there are just 2 million of them in a world of more than 1 billion cars. Or that, even with subsidies they are still more expensive than petrol and diesel alternatives. Like Jaguar Land Rover, they will also question whether there are enough charging points or electricity generation.... Experts such as Bloomberg and Aston University’s David Bailey predict a tipping point in the 2020s in some parts of the world, when electric cars simply make more financial sense for drivers than those powered by a combustion engine. And while the oil companies are right that increasingly affluent Chinese and Indians will want cars, they seem to ignore the fact that electric ones offer a fix for those countries’ air pollution problems, which their citizens are pushing further up the political agenda. So the world is driving towards the destination of profound change that Speth touched on. It’s just a question of when – and the answer increasingly looks sooner than anyone thought."
Global shockwaves from electric cars will be here sooner rather than later
Guardian, 10 September 2017

"A closely-held Chinese oil company agreed to buy a minority stake in Rosneft PJSC for about $9 billion, deepening energy and political ties with Russia amid increasing tensions with the U.S. The deal sees Glencore Plc and Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund selling most of their holding in Russia’s biggest crude producer, which they acquired to much fanfare in December. The commodities giant run by Ivan Glasenberg is making way for CEFC China Energy Co. -- little known even within the energy industry -- while retaining its prized access to millions of barrels of Russian oil exports.... Russia has muscled its way into the prized Chinese energy market over the last five years, elbowing aside traditional stalwarts Saudi Arabia and Angola. Moscow has been the top crude supplier to China for most of the year and now plans to start supplying natural gas by pipeline in 2019. "This deal intensifies the energy relationship between Russia and China," Christian Boermel, a senior analyst with oil consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. in London, said by email. “Rosneft keeps its customers close to its heart -- buy a stake, get an oil supply agreement.”
With Russia in $9 Billion Rosneft Deal
Bloomberg, 8 September 2017

"North Sea oil and gas producers have pulled out of the “death spiral” that had threatened to send the basin into precipitous decline, according to industry leaders. However, exploration activity remains at its lowest level since the 1970s and the UK faces a continued battle to compete against lower-cost oil and gas elsewhere in the world. The chief executives of Royal Dutch Shell and BP, the UK’s largest oil groups and pioneers of the North Sea industry, both said they were optimistic about the region after deep cost cuts since crude prices crashed in 2014. Addressing an industry conference in Aberdeen, Bob Dudley of BP said the group was “back to growth” in the North Sea, which remained “one of the crown jewels” in its portfolio. He said BP had halved average production costs in the region from $30 a barrel in 2014 to less than $15 a barrel today and was aiming to reach $12 a barrel by 2020. Similar gains have been made by companies across the UK industry. Ben van Beurden, chief executive of Shell, said the cost savings meant that certain North Sea assets that were losing money when oil prices were above $100 a barrel were now profitable at current prices of about $50. Speaking to the Financial Times on the sidelines of the Offshore Europe event, Mr van Beurden said the risk of a “death spiral” had been real if companies had decommissioned uncompetitive infrastructure, putting undeveloped oil and gas out of reach. “That big risk . . . looks to have been averted,” he said. However, even after recent improvements, the UK remains one of the most expensive places in the world to produce offshore oil and gas, with average costs above those of rival basins such as the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and neighbouring Norway. North Sea production has been rising since 2015 — reversing a 15-year slump — as several new projects approved during the era of $100-a-barrel oil have come on stream. This growth is expected to continue until at least 2019, aided by the completion this year of BP’s £4.4bn Quad 204 project west of the Shetland Islands and the expected start-up next year of its £4.5bn Clair Ridge expansion. These projects are set to double BP’s UK production to 200,000 barrels a day by 2020. However, Catherine MacGregor, president of drilling for Schlumberger, the US-listed oilfield services group, said the UK “faces a big cut in production post-2020” unless more new projects are developed."
North Sea oil and gas producers say they have left ‘death spiral’
Financial Times, 6 September 2017

"Britain’s North Sea energy sector is still shedding thousands of jobs despite the recovery in the oil price, according to new figures. The industry had already been hollowed out by the 2014-16 oil price slump, falling from a peak of nearly 500,000 employed in 2014 to 315,000 at the end of last year. But data from the Oil & Gas UK, the trade body, shows a further 13,000 jobs linked to the sector were lost in the first half of 2017. The bulk of the employment is indirect jobs, in the supply chain and services such as hotels and restaurants. Oil & Gas UK said this year’s contraction, which has continued despite the price of a barrel of oil costing a third more than a year before, was the result not just of cost-cutting, but nearly $6bn worth of mergers and acquisitions.  Several major oil firms have sold stakes to smaller, independent players in the region this year in search of more profitable reserves elsewhere, raising fears over further job losses. One industry expert cited Total’s recent acquisition of Maersk’s North Sea operations, saying head office functions would be duplicated and therefore liable to restructuring and job cuts. Steve Todd, national secretary of the RMT union, said: “I’ve been involved in this industry for 45 years and it’s the worst I’ve ever seen it. I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel. “If anything it’s getting worse, in my view. I’m yet to be convinced there are any green shoots.”... Just 14 exploration wells and 8 appraisal wells – the step after exploration but before production – were drilled in 2016, the trade body’s economic report found. A lack of capital investment also remains a serious concern, with only three new oilfields approved since 2016. The only area where expenditure is increasing involves the decommissioning of old oil rigs, such as Shell’s removal of a platform in the Brent field earlier this year. The government has proposed changing tax relief rules around decommissioning to support the sector, with a final decision expected at the autumn budget....  The price of oil continues to hover around $50 a barrel despite a deal agreed in May by major oil-producing countries to extend production curbs and prop up prices. Oil & Gas UK said the market’s reaction to the agreement suggested “it may be more difficult to overcome the global oversupply [of oil] than previously anticipated” and that the market was likely to remain volatile until 2019."
North Sea oil and gas sector losing thousands of jobs, survey show
Guardian, 6 September 2017

"The U.K. North Sea is on track for the biggest year of oil and gas field startups in a decade, continuing the aging province’s surprising resilience to the crude-market slump. Fourteen projects with combined peak production of 230,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day will start in the region this year, according to data from consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. That’s the most since 2007, reflecting the payoff from multi-year investments begun when oil prices were still over $100 a barrel.... Still, the lack of investment since prices plunged weighs on the outlook beyond 2018. “Really 2017 is the last year of that tranche of projects” started when prices were high, said Evans. Wood Mackenzie expects the U.K. continental shelf to pump about 1.9 million barrels equivalent a day of oil and gas on average in 2018, with production from the new fields this year accounting for as much as 12 percent of that total. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized countries on energy policy, sees U.K. oil output declining every year from 2019 to 2022."
U.K. North Sea Oil Field Startups Surge to 10-Year High
Bloomberg, 4 September 2017

"The dominance of Big Oil will be usurped in less than two decades by the dawn of a golden age for natural gas lasting at least until the middle of the century. One of the world’s biggest risk assurance experts in the global energy ­industry has predicted that gas will emerge as the world’s most important source of energy by the mid 2030s ­after a slow descent for oil which will peak within ten years and the ongoing decline of coal. Remi Eriksen, the boss of Norway’s DNV GL, said the group’s first conservative prediction for the future of the global energy industry has revealed a boom in renewable energy which will meet around half the world’s needs – but gas will be the largest single source of energy for decades to come. “Gas will overtake oil as the world’s biggest source of energy by 2034. By 2050 it will be the single biggest source at 27pc of demand,” he said. He added that the demand for gas will tower over the use of individual renewable energy sources such as wind, hydro and solar power, although when totalled ­together renewable energy will make up 50pc of energy use. ... Mr Eriksen said Big Oil will continue to move towards gas on economic grounds due to its low cost compared to oil, and high demand for gas from electricity generators looking for a fuel which is less polluting than burning oil and coal. 'There will be oil and gas in the future, and there will need to be further exploration of our resources because the depletion of existing ­reserves will be faster than the drop in demand,' he said.... Nonetheless Mr Eriksen predicts that the world is still falling short of goals to limit global warming to within two degrees Celsius, the point at which climate change is predicted to wrought catastrophic consequences on the ­environment. He said the gloomy prognosis could still be avoided if programmes to use hydrogen for heat, together with carbon capture technology move ahead. But the findings should serve as “a wake-up call to all stakeholders in the energy system”."
Big Oil to be usurped by gas in little more than a decade, experts warn
Telegraph, 4 September 2017

"Global oil demand could peak in only five years, according to forecasts suggesting that oil companies are underestimating the rise of electric vehicles. Most oil majors do not expect oil usage to start to decline until the late 2030s, with Shell forecasting that it could peak in the late 2020s only under the “most aggressive” and unlikely scenario for electric car growth. However, in a report being published today, DNV GL, a Norwegian risk management company that works with both oil and gas and renewables companies, predicts that the peak could come as early as 2022. According to Remi Eriksen, its chief executive, there will be “a more rapid uptake of electrical vehicles — personal cars but also into trucks and buses — from 2020 onwards”."
Oil demand ‘to peak in only five years’
London Times, 4 September 2017

"If humans can kick fossil-fuels, they will benefit from massive efficiency increases in every sector—a net savings of 42 percent of world energy use that will both derive from and ease the transition to clean energy, a Stanford University professor says in a video released this week. The video followed the release of a roadmap in which Stanford's Mark Z. Jacobson and 26 colleagues from Stanford, Berkeley, Berlin and Denmark demonstrate how 139 countries could rely on 100 percent wind, water and solar renewables by 2050. In the video, Jacobson rebuts the common notion that renewables are not up to the task of meeting world energy demand. 'We find that by electrifying everything in these countries and by providing that electricity with clean renewable energy, power demand goes down about 42 percent without really changing much habit," says Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and director of Stanford's Atmosphere/Energy Program."
Electrification Alone Will Save 42 Percent Of World Energy Demand, Stanford Prof Says
Forbes, 31 August 2017

"California lawmakers are considering a future without the use of fossil fuels to generate electricity, a step that would boost the renewable energy industry and expand the scope of the state’s battle against global warming. If approved at the end of the legislative session next month, the proposal would eventually ensure only clean energy moves through the state’s electricity grid, a goal nearly unmatched anywhere in the world. It would accelerate the adoption of renewable energy by requiring utilities and other electricity providers to obtain 60% of their power from resources such as the sun and wind by 2030. Then it would task regulators with phasing out fossil fuels for the remaining 40% by 2045."
California's goal: an electricity grid moving only clean energy
Los Angeles Times, 31 August 2017

"Fracking for gas will not work in the UK, according to research carried out at Heriot-Watt university. Prof John Underhill said the geology of the British Isles will not support it. The fracking debate, he has claimed, is 55 million years too late. Prof Underhill is Heriot-Watt's chief scientist and professor of exploration geoscience. He said the rocks containing shale deposits in the UK are riddled with fractures. They are "like a pane of shattered glass" and will make large scale fracking unviable. The energy industry has been fracking for decades. Hydraulic fracturing, to give it its proper name, involves pumping a fluid - usually water plus additives - into rocks containing hard to reach energy deposits. The water pressure fractures the rocks, the additives keep the fractures open just enough for the oil or gas to emerge and be captured. It's a commonplace procedure offshore in the North Sea oil industry....  Successful gas extraction requires shale to be underground at just the right temperature and pressure. That's how it happens in the US. A drill digs deep, then turns to push and frack horizontally along the shale deposit. And that, according to Prof Underhill, is what can't happen here. Because Britain is broken, geologically speaking.... A tracery of black lines show where fault lines shatter some of the UK's biggest shale deposits: West Lothian, Bowland Shale in Lancashire, the Weald Basin. "For extraction to occur," he says, "you need a simple geology in the subsurface. "So you can drill and then drill horizontally for long distances with confidence. Not go up, down, around. "If you've got a fractured subsurface and something that's uplifted, you've switched off the kitchen in which oil and gas is generated - and you've broken the rock so it's not continuous." Prof Underhill's assessment is unlikely to kill the fracking debate here. But energy prices could make smaller scale extraction viable in some cases. It could mean the debate shatters into more localised controversies. But it raises another important question: where are our future energy supplies to come from? The UK ceased to be self-sufficient in gas earlier this century. Now we depend on imports to keep us topped up."
UK fracking not viable, claims Edinburgh geologist
BBC Online, 17 August 2017

"Green taxes which are blamed for adding up to £150 to every power bill will not be cut as the result of a government review of rising energy bills announced today. Dieter Helm, an Oxford academic and critic of wind and solar power, has been hired to lead the official review of energy bills - but has been told he cannot suggest any “detailed” changes to green taxes. Last week British Gas blamed the taxes for a huge rise in electricity bills for three million of its customers. Electricity prices will increase by 12.5 per cent, adding £76 to the typical annual bill, from next month for British Gas's customers. The company said the cost of green subsidies levied on bills has created "significant pressures" and suggested that it had no choice but to respond by raising prices. The UK is legally obliged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050. Green levies on bills are used to pay for loft insulation schemes and subsidies for renewable energy projects. The Tories have repeatedly threatened to take action to curb the costs of these environmental taxes, which were  reportedly branded "green cr*p" by former Prime Minister David Cameron in 2013. Theresa May, the Prime Minister, pledged to cap energy price rises for 17 million households during the election. The Government said the review “will deliver on Government’s commitment to consider how to keep energy costs as low as possible”.... Prof Helm, an economist at Oxford University, defended the review saying: “The cost of energy always matters to households and companies, and especially now in these exceptional times, with huge investment requirements to meet the decarbonisation and security challenges ahead over the next decade and beyond.  "Digitalisation, electric transport and smart and decentralised systems offer great opportunities. It is imperative to do all this efficiently, to minimise the burdens... Prof Helm has previously been highly sceptical that green energy can do enough to cut emissions. He wrote in the Spectator magazine: "Current renewables like wind turbines, rooftop solar and biomass stand no serious chance of making much difference to decarbonisation. It’s simply a matter of scale.""
New Government review into soaring energy bills, but green taxes will stay
Telegraph, 16 August 2017

"Supplies of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, have outstripped fossil fuels this summer. On 26 May, solar panels produced more than a quarter of all electricity needed in the country, with windy and bright conditions helping renewable energy generation to smash records. And for the first time on 7 June, wind, nuclear and solar were all generating more than gas and coal combined. The falling cost of wind and solar technology makes it increasingly attractive and energy firms have installed tens of thousands of solar panels in recent years. The home roof market has also boomed with an estimated 900,000 systems now online, despite generous government subsidies all but drying up in the last two years."
Record-breaking summer for renewable power generation
Sky News, 12 August 2017

"The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut estimates for the amount of crude needed from Opec this year and in 2018 after lowering its historical assessments of consumption in some emerging nations... The agency lowered projections for the amount of crude required from Opec this year and next by about 400,000 barrels a day. About 32.6 million barrels a day will be needed from the group this year, less than the 32.84 million it pumped in July. There are also growing doubts that all the countries involved in the accord to reduce supply are fully committed, the IEA said.... Opec’s rate of compliance with the cutbacks slipped last month to 75 per cent, the lowest since the accord started in January. Iraq’s implementation was just 34 percent, Venezuela’s 28 percent and the U.A.E.’s 53 percent. Adherence among the non-members coordinating with Opec was at 67 per cent. Despite the reduction in total demand estimates, the rate of growth for this year is stronger than previously thought, at 1.5 million barrels a day.... With a lower demand outlook and higher Opec output, “stock draws later in the year are likely to be lower than first thought,” it said.  Oil had its worst week in a month as compliance with Opec’s deal falters and the outlook for demand worsens.... Oil just hasn’t been able to stick to the US$50 mark in New York even though US crude inventories are at their lowest since October, in part because recent declines are seen mostly as the result of summer demand that’s soon to fade. Opec’s rate of compliance with output cuts slid to 75 percent in July, the lowest since the accord started in January, the IEA said. Opec said its output is increasing on supplies from Libya, which is exempt from the deal. If Opec’s compliance to the deal continues to slow, “the rebalancing is going to take a longer time,” said Mark Watkins, a Park City, Utah-based regional investment manager at US Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $142 billion in assets. Meanwhile, in the US the number of rigs drilling for crude rose to 768, the highest level since April 2015, as production is set to reach nearly 10 million barrels next year. Amid all the doubt that supply and demand are coming to balance, futures have been stuck in a tight range of about $2.50 this month."
IEA says world oil markets re-balancing
Bloomberg, 12 August 2017

"European gas suppliers must take a more proactive role in tapping into diverse supply sources in view of U.S. attempts to sell its liquefied natural gas (LNG) into Europe, the CEO of German utility Uniper said on Tuesday. Uniper is one of five Western firms that have invested in Nord Stream 2, a Russian gas export pipeline to Europe, which the latest U.S. sanctions related to Russia's activities in Crimea may make harder to realize. While some U.S. measures remain discretionary, they may take aim at the planned twin pipeline to the existing Nord Stream 1 link connecting Russia's gas fields with Germany via the Baltic Sea, which could keep future U.S. shale gas deliveries away. "The core reason (for the sanctions) are strategic economic interests, meaning the targeted dominance of the U.S. in energy markets," Uniper CEO Klaus Schaefer said in a call with journalists on its first-half earnings. "Uniper's readiness to finance the Nord Stream 2 project with other European partners arises from the conviction that this additional gas link makes economic sense and that our contribution to its financing will be profitable." Nord Stream 2 is due to be completed in 2019 with a likelihood of helping Moscow boost its oil and gas revenue and market share in Europe, where gas resources are dwindling. Schaefer said that European buyers could compete with those in Asia for LNG if they wanted to secure supply from the world market, where U.S. cargoes were some 50 percent more expensive compared with European references prices."
Uniper says Europe needs to find new gas sources, fend off U.S.
Reuters, 8 August 2017

"Fresh US sanctions against Russia signed into law by Mr Trump on Wednesday over alleged meddling in the US presidential election could directly target energy export pipelines that Washington fears will increase Moscow’s influence over Europe’s gas supplies. Jason Bordoff, a one-time adviser to former US President Barack Obama who runs Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy, suggests that while LNG is normally more expensive, Gazprom will still face painful choices as supplies from rivals make their way to Europe. The Russian group has to pick between “competing on price and defending market share” or “cutting back on supply to keep prices high”, he says. If Gazprom decides to opt for the former, which Mr Bordoff thinks the evidence points to, then the Russian company will need to accept it is entering a price war that may hit its revenues even if it can keep raising sales in a region hungry for energy. The US president’s overture to countries such as Poland chimes with the mood among pro-Nato politicians in central Europe, who resent Moscow’s leverage over their gas supply with their web of import pipelines. Some might happily rely more on the US for their gas, even if it means paying more. Sanctions are also complicating the battle, particularly if they hit Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany, which is under construction. That has rattled Russian politicians who are keen to talk up their ability as a cheap supplier of gas to Europe. “The attempts to derail Nord Stream 2 are part of unfair competition practices by potential suppliers of LNG, which is more expensive compared with natural gas delivered by pipelines,” Russia’s energy minister, Alexander Novak, told the Financial Times before Mr Trump signed the sanctions. “These politically motivated economic restrictions will ultimately make the energy resources on the market more expensive.”  Mr Novak’s comments highlight the risks for some European countries, with analysts saying the EU will need to increase gas imports in the short term at least. This is due to falling domestic production in countries such as the Netherlands and the UK. Nord Stream 2 is part of Gazprom’s response to that forecasted jump in demand. It has inked an agreement with European energy majors including Royal Dutch Shell, Austria’s OMV, France’s Engie and Germany’s Uniper and Wintershall to finance half the €9.5bn to build the pipeline, which will add 55bn cubic meters of annual capacity to its European flows, delivered under the Baltic Sea. Last month, it also began work on doubling the capacity on its under-construction Turkish Stream pipeline, raising capacity to 30bn cubic metres in annual shipments for Turkey and southern Europe. The Russian group has already increased exports to Europe by an annual 12.3 per cent in the first six months of 2017, following a 12.5 per cent annual increase in 2016. In the eyes of Gazprom’s chief executive Alexei Miller, there is no contest in the demand stakes. “Our gas is enjoying increasing demand in Europe,” he says. “Our gas demand growth will continue.”  Gazprom officials argue that countries such as Poland will have to pay more for ships of US LNG if they decide to reduce their imports of politically unpalatable piped Russian gas. However, the rise of LNG is linking up markets. Its growth from the US and producers such as Australia and Qatar is joining up regional markets that were previously separate, allowing more gas to flow where it is most needed. Supplies of the super-cooled fuel are expected to grow almost 50 per cent between 2015 and 2020. This has already had the effect of partially transferring low US prices, depressed by shale gas production, through to Europe and Asia. Gazprom believes it still has advantages on price, particularly as it has started to loosen pricing controls to many of its main European customers. Currently, the US gas price is about $2.85 per MMBTU, a measure of energy content in fuel. This rises above $6 after factoring all the associated fees for shipping, liquefication and gasification, according to Gazprom estimates. This compares with about $5 per MMBTU in much of the European market, where Gazprom accounts for about a third of supply.....  But, despite the price advantages, countries such as Lithuania and Poland are embracing LNG to let Russia know they have alternatives. They complain that Gazprom prices are still too high and also resent relying on Russia. Some European countries would like to break the Russian stranglehold over the market. “LNG is a point of leverage,” says Ira Joseph at energy consultancy Pira, a unit of S&P Global Platts, the energy data provider. Charif Souki, head of energy group Tellurian, points out that LNG was not meant to be a full-blown replacement for pipeline supplies as it could not meet the demands of the European market on its own. Instead, he thinks LNG provides flexibility to the market. “Gas can now move where you need it in the world. That’s the biggest challenge for a company like Gazprom.” ... The US enjoys some of the cheapest market-rate gas prices in the world due to the glut created by the shale boom, but once the additional costs of liquefaction and shipping and regasification are added, the total cost still starts to creep above those in Europe. However, the structure of many LNG deals often involve a fixed “take or pay” portion that long-term buyers such as Centrica, which is due to start lifting enough LNG from the US Gulf Coast in 2019 to supply 1.8m UK homes, will still have to pay for whether they need the gas or not. These so-called sunk costs mean it will often make more economic sense to lift the gas and sell it on to customers or rival traders even if the pipeline gas from Russia or other suppliers is cheaper. That can make US LNG shipments to Europe viable, with the continent seen as the main destination for excess cargoes as it has surplus regasifaction capacity. Centrica has LNG import capacity at the National Grid’s Isle of Grain facility in Kent."
US and Russia step up fight to supply Europe’s gas
Financial Times, 3 August 2017

"New U.S. sanctions will make it harder for Russia to build two gas export pipelines to Europe but the projects are unlikely to be stopped. U.S. President Donald Trump has reluctantly signed into law further sanctions on Russia but some of the measures are discretionary and most White House watchers believe he will not take action against Russia's energy infrastructure. This would allow Gazprom's two big pipeline projects to go ahead, although at a higher price and with some delays. The Kremlin, dependent on oil and gas revenues, sees the pipelines to Germany and Turkey - Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream - as crucial to increasing its market share in Europe. It also fears that Western partners - needed to develop the deepwater, shale and Arctic gas deposits that will fill the pipelines - will be scared off by sanctions. Gazprom warned investors last month that the sanctions "may result in delays, or otherwise impair or prevent the completion of the projects by the group." With all that in mind, the Russian gas giant is taking steps to reduce the impact of sanctions. It has accelerated pipe-laying by Swiss contractor Allseas Group under the Black Sea for TurkStream - even though there is no final agreement on where the pipeline will make landfall in Turkey. It is also hurriedly building a second TurkStream line to export gas to Europe. "The construction of the second line is underway just in case the sanctions hit," a senior Gazprom source told Reuters.... The biggest cost of any delays to the new lines could come from increased transit fees paid to Ukraine, the route by which Russian gas has traditionally reached Europe. Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream bypass Ukraine, but if they are brought into use late, Gazprom will have to continue using the Ukrainian route and may have to pay more for the privilege. The European Union, fearing sanctions will hurt oil and gas projects on which it depends, said it was ready to retaliate unless it obtained U.S. guarantees that European firms would not be targeted."
Russian gas pipelines to go ahead despite U.S. sanctions
Reuters, 3 August 2017

"BP has slashed its forecasts for the stuttering oil market as it braces for a price of around $50 a barrel to last for the next five years. The admission is a major revision from the oil major which less than one year ago said that it expected the oil price to return to $60 a barrel in 2017. The oil market peaked above $56 a barrel earlier this year but the healthy prices reignited the US shale industry which dampened the recovery with a fresh flow of oil to drag the price back below the $50 mark. Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive, said the market price is likely to remain caught in a rut between $45 a barrel and $55 for the next five years – but the group will continue to increase its cash flows by cutting its costs to break-even at a $30 market price. “We’re on the path to being in the $30s within 5 years. At an oil price of $50 a barrel and a break-even price of $30 the company will be generating a lot of cash,” he told The Daily Telegraph."
BP braces for $50 oil to spill into the 2020s
Telegraph, 1 August 2017

"Britain will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2040 in an attempt to reduce air pollution that could herald the end of over a century of reliance on the internal combustion engine. Britain's step, which follows France, amounts to a victory for electric cars that if copied globally could hit the wealth of oil producers, as well as transform car industry jobs and one of the icons of 20th Century capitalism: the automobile itself. The mayors of Paris, Madrid, Mexico City and Athens have said they plan to ban diesel vehicles from city centres by 2025, while the French government also aims to end the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040. The British government has been under pressure to take steps to reduce air pollution after losing legal cases brought by campaign groups. Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives had pledged to make "almost every car and van" zero-emission by 2050. "There should be no new diesel or petrol vehicles by 2040," environment minister Michael Gove told BBC Radio. The ban would only apply to conventional rather than hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and combustion engine, Gove's ministry said. There is a mountain to climb, however. Electric cars currently account for less than 5 percent of new car registrations in Britain, with drivers concerned about the cost and limited availability of charging points and manufacturers worried about making expensive investments before the demand is there.  While many automakers may find it hard to countenance the end of the combustion engine, some have embraced a future where electric vehicles, or perhaps even driverless ones, prevail. This month, Volvo became the first major traditional automaker to set a date for phasing out vehicles powered solely by the internal combustion engine by saying all its car models launched after 2019 would be electric or hybrids. Renault-Nissan in 2009 announced plans to spend 4 billion euros on electric car development. But until Volkswagen (VW) admitted in 2015 to cheating on U.S. diesel emissions tests, most mainstream auto manufacturers had been slow to sink serious investment into battery cars. The backlash against diesel, without which carmakers would struggle to meet CO2 targets, has since refocused minds and produced a flurry of new commitments. VW itself unveiled ambitious plans last year to roll out 30 new battery-powered models that it expects to account for 2-3 million annual sales by 2025 - or as much as 25 percent of its vehicle production. "Even though modern combustion engines will be relevant for at least another 20 years, it is clear that the future will be ruled by electric drives," VW chief executive Matthias Mueller said earlier this year. PSA Group boss Carlos Tavares, in the past a vocal defender of diesel technologies, said on Wednesday the French company was ready to embrace mass electrification, provided the required consumer demand and government support were there. "The rise of the electric vehicle is very much dependent on the subsidies and the support governments will be able to give to this technology," Tavares told analysts during the company's first-half results presentation. PSA is planning to roll out new pure-electric and plug-in hybrid models from 2019. Toyota, which pioneered hybrids but long resisted battery-only cars, changed tack last year and has since unveiled plans for a new range of pure-electric models. In Europe, so called 'green cars' benefit from subsidies, tax breaks and other perks, while combustion engines face mounting penalties including driving and parking restrictions. China, struggling with catastrophic pollution levels in major cities, is pushing plug-in vehicles, though in the United States there is much less appetite so far. Germany, the home of major carmakers such as VW, Daimler and BMW, should soon start phasing out petrol and diesel too, said Oliver Wittke, a transport expert in Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats. But there is likely to be resistance in Europe's biggest car market. More than 600,000 jobs could be at risk in Germany from a potential ban on combustion engine cars by 2030, the Ifo economic institute said this month in a study commissioned by Germany's VDA car industry lobby.Germany's major carmakers have invested heavily in diesel technology, which offers more efficient fuel burn and lower carbon dioxide emissions than gasoline-powered cars. ..... Britain's move will accelerate the decline of diesel cars, whose nitrogen oxide emissions have been blamed for causing respiratory diseases, in Europe's second biggest market. The government will provide more than 250 million pounds to local authorities for schemes to restrict diesel vehicles' access to polluted roads but said other options should be exhausted before charging users of polluting vehicles. Any restrictions or charges for polluting vehicles to use affected roads should be time-limited and lifted as soon as air pollution is within legal limits, it added. Gove said he favoured road-by-road restrictions for diesel vehicles rather than outright bans from town centres or costly vehicle scrappage schemes, but did not rule them out entirely if they were local authorities' preferred options.... Turning away from oil will add to discussions about whether the world is reaching peak oil demand and how additional electric power can be generated. Some companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, expect demand to peak as early as by the end of the next decade. Demand for diesel cars fell 10 percent in the first half of the year in Britain while sales of petrol vehicles rose 5 percent, according to industry data. Sales of electric and hybrid models rose by nearly 30 percent, the fastest growing section of the market albeit from a low base."

World oil demand could peak in 2024 on higher vehicle efficiency: Goldman Sachs
Reuters, 25 July 2017

"Mechanical and electrical engineers at the University of California, Riverside, have now discovered that glass from waste can be turned into a material for lithium ion battery electrodes using a low-cost chemical process. Moreover, batteries using these electrodes significantly outperform conventional cells with graphite electrodes, they claim....Their latest effort, detailed in a paper in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, draws on previous research that found that nanostructured silicon anodes can store up to 10 times as much energy in a lithium-ion cell than conventional graphite anodes; the silicon is able to absorb large amounts of lithium and the nanostructured form prevents the material from swelling when this happens, protecting the mechanical integrity of the battery....“We started with a waste product that was headed for the landfill and created batteries that stored more energy, charged faster, and were more stable than commercial coin cell batteries. Hence, we have very promising candidates for next-generation lithium-ion batteries,” Li said. The batteries produced would be suited to challenging application such as electric vehicles and electronic devices, the researchers added."
Waste glass could hold key to high-performance battery materials
The Engineer, 21 April 2017

"Large natural gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean have raised hopes that the region could serve EU energy needs, helping it to fulfil its goals of energy diversification, security, and resilience. But there are commercial and political hurdles in the way. Cyprusʼs reserves are too small to be commercially viable and Israel needs a critical mass of buyers to begin full-scale production. Regional cooperation – either bilaterally or with Egypt – is the only way the two countries will be able to export. Egypt is the only country in the region that could export gas to Europe independently because of the size of its reserves and its existing export infrastructure. But energy sector reforms will be needed to secure investor confidence in this option. There are now two options for regional export: to build a pipeline that connects Israel and Cyprus to southern Europe, or to create a network of pipelines into Egypt, from which gas could be liquefied and exported."
Pipelines and Pipedreams: How the EU can support a regional gas hub in the Eastern Mediterranean
European Council on Foreign Relations, 21 April 2017

"Oil dropped below $50 a barrel as investors lost faith that an extension of OPEC-led supply cuts will overcome growing U.S. production and ease a global glut...Prices dropped 3.8 percent on Wednesday after government data showed U.S. production rose for a ninth straight week, even as stockpiles continued to decline from a record. U.S. explorers added 5 oil rigs this week to cap the longest stretch of gains since 2011, Baker Hughes Inc. data show."
Oil Falls Below $50 as Surging U.S. Output Undermines OPEC Cuts
Bloomberg, 20 April 2017

"The euphoria of rising U.S. oil production continues in the Mainstream media while troubling signs are now taking place at the Bakken.  Even though overall U.S. oil production has climbed due to an increase in drilling rig activity, supply from the Bakken has stalled. According to the most recently released Drill Productivity Report from the EIA – U.S. Energy Information Agency, oil production at the Bakken is forecasted to decline in Ma.The data from the Drilling Productivity Reports states the Bakken will add 43,000 barrels per day (bd) of new oil production in May, but its Legacy Decline will be 44,000 bd.  Thus, overall oil production at the Bakken will decline a modest 1,000 bd in May. Furthermore, the peak of Bakken oil production took place at the end of 2014 at 1.2+ million barrels per day (mbd), and is now a little more than 1 mbd.  You would think with an oil price now trading in the $50 range, much higher than the $30 range in the beginning of 2016, oil production would be growing once again at the Bakken.  However, it is not.  Actually, the Bakken was producing more oil in the beginning of 2016 when the price was in the $30’s than it is today with the price in the $50 range. Now, the reason for the increase in U.S. oil production is largely due to the growth in the Eagle Ford and Permian Region. The Eagle Ford in Texas is forecasted to increase its oil production by 38,000 bd in May, however its production has not increased all that much from its bottom at the end of 2016.  Furthermore, Eagle Ford’s oil production is still 500,000 bd lower than its peak set in the beginning of 2015.  Oil production growth at the Permian is estimated to increased 76,ooo bd in May.  However, for the Permian to increase its production in May, it will have to add 205,000 bd of new production as its Legacy decline will be 129,000 bd.  Which means, the Permian is now losing 129,000 bd of oil production each month (and this figure is growing). The Permian is the new place where a lot of drilling and capital expenditures are now taking place.  Some companies have stated they can produce oil in the Permian for $40… and even $20 a barrel in the future.... As Bakken oil production continued to grew each year, the steepness in its declines, also increased.  If we look at 2014 (in orange), we can see that production peaked at nearly 1.2 mbd.  However, 2014 production would have declined to 500,000 bd (follow it down to right side of chart), if no new production was added.  But, because there were new wells added in 2015, 2016 and part of 2017, production has been kept at 1 mbd. That being said, growth died in 2015 and then declined in 2016.  While it is true that the oil price was partly the blame for lower drilling rig activity in the Bakken, the steep annual decline in production was going to peak sooner or later.  It just happened to be sooner..... while U.S. oil production will likely increase as gains in the Permian and other areas continue, the Bakken is providing the market with a troubling sign.  And that is… it’s production has stalled due to high decline rates and lower drilling activity."
Troubling Signs At Bakken As Oil Production Growth Stalls
SRSrocco Report, 20 April 2017

"U.S. shale production in May is likely to post the biggest monthly gain in more than two years, government data showed on Monday, as producers step up the pace of drilling with oil prices holding above $50 a barrel. May output is expected to rise by 123,000 barrels per day to 5.19 million bpd, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's drilling productivity report. If that is right, May will have the biggest monthly increase since February 2015 and the highest monthly production level since November 2015. More barrels could be on their way to market from U.S. shale fields as financial companies are investing billions in production, a Reuters analysis shows. Any increase in output in the United States, now the world's third-biggest oil producer, will likely put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - which agreed to curb output at the end of last year - to cut production further."
Oil prices fall on expected climb in U.S. production
Reuters, 18 April 2017

"Record amounts of new renewables were added to energy systems worldwide last year at a lower cost as clean technology prices fell, a report shows. Wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, small-scale hydropower, marine energy and waste-to-energy schemes added 138.5 gigawatts (GW) to global power capacity, equivalent to the total installed capacity of Canada. The figure, which excludes large hydroelectric dams, is up 8 per cent from 127.5GW in 2015. Despite the increase, global investment in new renewables was down almost a quarter to $241.6 billion as the costs of renewables such as solar and wind fell. The spending per unit of power capacity from solar and wind dropped by more than a tenth in 2016, the report by UN Environment, the Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre and Bloomberg New Energy Finance found. Investment in new renewables was roughly double the amount going into fossil fuel plants and the clean technologies accounted for 55 per cent of capacity added worldwide in 2016. Electricity coming from renewables, excluding large hydroelectric dams, rose from 10.3 per cent of total generation in 2015 to 11.3 per cent in 2016, preventing an estimated 1.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions."
Record amounts of renewable energy added to the mix in 2016
New Scientist, 6 April 2017

"Qatar has lifted a self-imposed ban on development of the world's biggest natural gas field, the chief executive of Qatar Petroleum said on Monday, as the world's top LNG exporter looks to see off an expected rise in competition. Qatar declared a moratorium in 2005 on the development of the North Field, which it shares with Iran, to give Doha time to study the impact on the reservoir from a rapid rise in output. The vast offshore gas field, which Doha calls the North Field and Iran calls South Pars, accounts for nearly all of Qatar's gas production and around 60 percent of its export revenue. "We have completed most of our projects and now is a good time to lift the moratorium," QP Chief Executive Saad al-Kaabi told reporters Monday at Qatar Petroleum's headquarters in Doha. "For oil there are people who see peak demand in 2030, others in 2042, but for gas, demand is always growing." The development in the southern section of the North Field will have a capacity of 2 billion cubic feet per day, or 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent, and increase production of the field by about 10 percent, when it starts production in five to seven years, he said. Qatar is expected to lose its top exporter position this year to Australia, where new production is due to come on line. The LNG market is undergoing huge changes as the biggest ever flood of new supply is hitting the market, with volumes coming mainly from the United States and Australia. President Vladimir Putin said last Thursday Russia aimed to become the world's largest LNG producer. The flurry of LNG production has resulted in global installed LNG capacity of over 300 million tonnes a year, while only around 268 million tonnes of LNG were traded in 2016, Thomson Reuters data shows. That has helped pull down Asian spot LNG prices LNG-AS by more than 70 percent from their 2014 peaks to $5.65 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Qatar's decision to lift the moratorium, which came as a surprise to many, is seen as a sign the country will not sit by idly as others scoop up customers in a growing market.... Iran, which suffers from severe domestic gas shortages, has made a rapid increase in production from South Pars a top priority and signed a preliminary deal with France's Total in November to develop its South Pars II project. Iran's oil minister last week vowed to ramp up production of its part of the shared field."
Qatar restarts development of world's biggest gas field after 12-year freeze
Reuters, 4 April 2017

"The popular claim that a surge in electric cars will hasten the arrival of peak oil demand is undermined by the data.The majority of the world’s cars will remain powered by petrol, also commonly known as gasoline, for at least the next two decades and this will drive oil demand, according to data from Facts Global Energy. With the number of passenger vehicles expected to grow to 1.8bn by 2040, the energy consultancy estimates only 10 per cent will be accounted for by electric cars and a further 20 per cent by hybrids. This might sound contentious given the hype around Tesla, the flag-bearer of electric vehicle producers, and many analysts forecasting a structural decline in oil consumption. But most research simplifies the matter, suggesting that falling battery prices are tightly correlated with electric car sales. The reality is more complex. The shift towards electric has to be supported by significant government incentives. Norway, for example, owes its success to the hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenues diverted towards subsidies making it almost free to drive an electric car. Today it is normal for a Norwegian to buy an electric car in addition to a petrol vehicle for daily use to save money. Without such a subsidy, sales would fall, as demonstrated in Denmark last year. When the incentive was dropped in January 2016, electric car sales plunged 80 per cent from the previous year. Battery technology is improving but not as fast as necessary. Even at the $150/kWh — considered widely as the level to trigger mass production — a battery pack for an electric car with a comparable range to that of a petrol-powered car would cost tens of thousands of dollars. Cost aside, the improvement in battery effectiveness as measured by energy density is also slow. It is not possible to quickly increase the amount of distance travelled unless you add more batteries to a car, which means more weight and, in turn, a reduction in how far you can go. The love affair with the sport utility vehicles, partly driven by low oil prices, remains a problem. Last year, Ford sold six F-series light trucks in the US for every plug-in vehicle, providing solid petrol demand for the years to come. Even in China, one in every three cars sold is an SUV. With relatively low oil prices for at least the next decade, in FGE’s view, this trend will continue. Production capacity is another obstacle. Despite impressive annual growth rates, total electric car production was less than 500,000 in 2016, compared with global light vehicle production capacity of more than 70m. Tesla put just 80,000 cars on the road in 2016. Battery technology is improving but not as fast as necessary. Even at the $150/kWh — considered widely as the level to trigger mass production — a battery pack for an electric car with a comparable range to that of a petrol-powered car would cost tens of thousands of dollars. Cost aside, the improvement in battery effectiveness as measured by energy density is also slow. It is not possible to quickly increase the amount of distance travelled unless you add more batteries to a car, which means more weight and, in turn, a reduction in how far you can go."
Electric cars pose little threat to oil demand
Financial Times, 21 March 2017

"The Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico is one of the hottest fields now since it’s economic to drill even in the $30 to $35 range."
In new boom, oil companies say they're not likely to go back to old ways